Best non-dunk shooters in the 2010 NBA Draft

I wanted to know which players among this summer’s draft choices were the best at simply putting the ball in the basket — without dunking it.  My theory being that rookies do not find nearly as many dunk opportunities in the NBA as they did in college, so I wanted to know who could score without dunking and therefore who was likely and unlikely to be an effective scorer in the NBA ranks.

My calculations below are simply the result of the unweighted averages of  shots made from 3 equally considered categories:  2 point jumpers, inside shots, and 3 point shots.   If the player did not attempt more than 10% of his shots from 3 range, he was considered among “Big Men who don’t shoot 3s”.

When I say “unweighted” I mean that I took the three (or two) averages and calculated them as though the player shot an equal amount from each range.  I did that because I didn’t want to reward players or penalize them for taking threes, and I didn’t want the results skewed by too many shots from players best area.  I just wanted to know the answer to the following:  Who among the 2010 draft choices can put the ball in the basket the best regardless of shot type?

RESULTS

The results were interesting.  The first list, the list for those who used the 3 ball often show once again what a poor shooter John Walls is (he finished DEAD LAST), and how extremely effective Evan Turner is (he was well ahead of even the nearest competitor).  The results for big men show that Ed Davis is a great scoring big man who doesn’t have to have dunks while the Bucks Larry Sanders better hope he gets a lot of dunk opportunities.   It also show the Pistons Greg Monroe couldn’t find the basket if you “mapquested” it for him.  Plus… bonus… he’s a shitty rebounder!  Which makes one wonder why he was picked so high (Or as a guy once asked me “What do ya mean ya don’t hunt or fish?… What the fuck do ya do?!”)

Actually, though, its this Aminu fellow who graded out the worst among everyone.  Of course, he was a consensus high lottery pick.  He must have had “wicked” upside, or whatever other bullshit “scouts” tell one another. (by the way, here’s an excellent article on the value of predraft “scouting”)

Players who incorporate 3s into their games
1. Evan Turner (53.4%)
2. Luke Babbitt (49.7%)
3. Damian James (48.3%)
4. Gordon Heywood (47.8%)
5. Wesley Johnson (46.7%)
6. Luke Harangody (46.7%)
7. Willie Warren (46.4%)
8. Grevius Vasquez (46.1%)
9. Jordan Crawford (45.9%)
10. James Anderson (45.6%)
11. Xavier Henry (45.5%)
12. Eric Bledsoe (43.3%)
13. Paul George (42.5%)
14. Elliot William (41.9%)
15. Darrington Hobson (41.7%)
16. Avery Bradley (41.7%)
17. John Wall (40.7%)
Big Men who don’t shoot 3s
1. Ed Davis (57.2%)
2. Derrick Favors (54.5%)
3. Cole Aldrich (53.7%)
4. DeMarcus Cousins (53.4%)
5.Jarvis Varnado (51.7%)
6. Tiny Gallon (51.1%)
7. Patrick Patterson (50.1%)
8. Trevor Booker (49.8%)
9. Solomon Albi (48.6%)
10. Hassan Whiteside (47.2%)
11. Larry Sanders (44.6%)
12. Ekpe Udoh (42.6%)
13. Greg Monroe (39.2%)
14. Al-Farouq Aminu (36.3%)

Footnote:  The first list considers 3 point accuracy according to the percentage of times the ball went in the basket, not by “effective” average.

4 Responses to “Best non-dunk shooters in the 2010 NBA Draft”

  1. robbieomalley Says:

    Ty,

    This is a fantastic post. I think draft posts tend to be the most interesting. Because you’re really searching for signs of how players will turn out and it’s an imperfect process but one that can be greatly improved on. As a huge Wizards fan, the John Wall numbers disappoint me but I was pretty aware of his struggles. His in conference numbers against decent competition were even worse.

    • palamida Says:

      Wall ended up shooting roughly 30% from 3 pt land (don’t feel like looking up the exact number, even though writing that last sentence, coupled with writing this one, probably took me a lot longer than looking it up… go figure :p).
      That all happened late in the season; his 30ish mark is half decent, but he actually hovered around 23-25% for most of the season, that’s worse than… Rondo?
      Idk, anyways expect Derrick Rose the second – prefers the drive any chance he gets because he can’t hit a 3 at a respectable clip. Unlike Rose who has a decent midrange jumper, Wall – does not, and thus would probably score most of his points in transition and will struggle mightily with half court sets.
      But hey…he’s got ROY in his pocket already, so what does it matter anyways, right?

  2. robbieomalley Says:

    Palamida, I wouldn’t count out Blake Griffin for ROY.

  3. palamida Says:

    Whatever Griffin can do, meaning: Rebounding and scoring inside at a high %- Cousins can do better.
    It’d be hard not to give the award to Cousins if he averages say… 18 and 9 on a much improved Kings team (possibly a playoff team) while Wall would be mundane on a lowly Wizards team.
    When I say hard, I don’t mean hard for me – I mean hard for the peeps actually awarding the award.
    With that said, If Rose took it down, what’s stopping Wall?
    Idk, these awards do not matter anyways, but as Dberri frequently does, they are great to illustrate and demonstrate how badly production is evaluated throughout the league.

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