Revisiting the awful (so far) 2010 NBA Lottery

So you want your bad team to fall into the lottery?  Why??  Most seasons its a wasteland of overvalued “athletes” with “wicked” skills… oh, and no basketball production. 

The moral of the story is, just win.  You can still pick up prospects without being in the Lottery.  Some of the better producers are generally found lower down in the Draft, anyway.  The best player by far in this summer’s draft was selected number 39 overall.

Below is an Excel chart that values last summer’s lottery according to wins produced so far.  Remember, its very early.  But it doesn’t look like we are going to get any difference makers in this crop:

  WS OpWS MWS W% W__L W>0.5% wW0.5%
J Wall 6.31 8.13 -0.91 0.349 1.3__2.5 -0.6 0.7
E Turner 5.71 7.71 -1.01 0.339 1.3__2.4 -0.5 0.7
D Favors 10.33 9.86 0.24 0.549 1.6__1.2 0.2 1.8
W Johnson 4.52 9.58 -2.53 0.081 0.4__4.2 -1.9 -1.5
D Cousins 7.51 12.28 -2.39 0.101 0.4__3.5 -1.5 -1.1
E Udoh 8.77 13.26 -2.25 0.121 0.1__0.7 -0.3 -0.2
G Monroe 11.05 12.21 -0.58 0.409 1.3__1.8 -0.3 0.9
A Aminu 7.95 10.52 -1.29 0.289 0.8__1.9 -0.5 0.3
G Hayward 4.07 7.45 -1.69 0.219 0.3__1.3 -0.5 -0.2
P George 10.72 7.19 1.77 0.809 0.7__0.2 0.2 0.9
C Aldrich 6.11 1.68 2.22 0.879 0.2__0.0 0.1 0.2
X Henry 0.31 6.55 -3.13 -0.031 0.0__2.0 -1.1 -1.1
E Davis 11.86 18.15 -3.15 -0.039 0.0__1.8 -0.9 -0.9
P Patterson 15.57 12.37 1.61 0.779 0.5__0.2 0.1 0.6
L Sanders 7.46 10.39 -1.47 0.259 0.4__1.2 -0.4 -0.1
  7.88 9.82 -0.97 0.341      

As you can see, the production has been sparse so far, even at the very top of the Draft. 

My predictions were just as bad as everyone else’s.  For one, I wrote that DeMarcus Cousins would be the best player in the draft.  He could be, but he has no idea how to play winning basketball.  For one thing, he has “Ralph Sampson’s Disease”… he’s a big man who plays as though he wishes he were a littler man.  For another, I thought the Big Ten prospect Evan Turner would be much more valuable.   I also thought both Derrick Favors and Greg Monroe would be very bad, and each has been about as good as anyone among the first 16 picks.

Once again, its early.  And I still think Cole Aldrich will be a valuable blue collar center, and I have high hopes for a few other players.   But the point is, if you want to find a “quick fix” solution in the draft, this chart ought to show you that the Lottery an be filled with more fool’s gold than precious metal.

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4 Responses to “Revisiting the awful (so far) 2010 NBA Lottery”

  1. Max Says:

    Unrelated, but wanted to get your thoughts on this article.

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/why-carmelo-anthony-is-the-ultimate-team-player-and-what-advanced-stats-miss-about-him/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  2. brgulker Says:

    I guess it depends on what “difference maker” means. I don’t think Greg Monroe will ever be an all star, but he did just record four consecutive double doubles.

    His main issue on offense is that he’s getting a lot of his shots blocked, which is understandable given how young an inexperienced he is. I do think from subjectively watching him play that he’s figuring this out and will continue to do so over time.

    Now, as to his ceiling, are we talking franchise superstar? No, I don’t. But to put things in terms of WP48, I think we’re talking about a guy who could realistically attain .125 – .150 production levels in 2 years. And beyond that, well, time will tell.

    Can’t say much about others, though, as I haven’t seen nearly enough of them.

    • tywill33 Says:

      That was an arbitrary use. I guess I meant “franchise changer” or something just below that. Monroe could very well be the most productive player in the draft, which f’s me up a little because he showed nothing in college. But again, college numbers are just “suggestive”. You have to add context (as I go into a little in this morning’s post). And even then, you’re guessing.

  3. Chicago Tim Says:

    So what about the 2009 lottery? Did I miss something?

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