Evaluating the 2010 NBA Lottery Picks

The Milwaukee Bucks are pretty much headed for the 2011 NBA Lottery.  Is that good news?  Based on the early results from last summer’s Lottery, the answer is no.

I did a Marginal Win Score evaluation of the top 16 picks (minus Cole Aldrich who hasn’t even played 200 minutes) to see how the picks were performing for their respective teams.  Here is the list followed by some commentary.

2010 NBA Lottery

	WS	oppWS	MWS	W%	W__L	W>0.5%
J Wall	6.15	9.96	-1.91	0.179	1.4__6.4	-2.5
E Turner	7.26	6.07	0.59	0.603	3.7__2.4	0.6
D Favors	9.67	10.57	-0.45	0.426	2.1__2.8	-0.3
W Johnson	4.65	8.89	-2.11	0.143	1.0__5.8	-2.4
D Cousins	8.51	10.66	-1.07	0.319	2.2__4.7	-2.2
E Udoh	6.27	11.41	-2.57	0.066	0.2__2.2	-1.1
G Monroe	13.31	13.78	-0.24	0.462	3.1__3.6	-0.3
A Aminu	6.63	9.74	-1.55	0.238	1.1__3.6	-1.2
G Hayward	4.41	8.38	-1.99	0.164	0.5__2.7	-1.1
P George	9.89	5.88	2.01	0.843	2.9__0.5	1.2
X Henry	0.04	6.47	-3.21	-0.041	(-0.1)__2.3	-1.2
E Davis	15.67	15.74	-0.03	0.496	2.1__2.2	-0.1
P Patterson	12.17	8.01	2.08	0.856	1.7__0.3	0.7
L Sanders	6.19	12.87	-3.34	-0.065	(-0.2)__2.7	-1.4
	7.91	9.89	-0.98	0.335		-11.3

Commentary

As you can see, the Lottery players have not delivered as some thought they would last summer.  While technically not a Lottery pick, Milwaukee Bucks center Larry Sanders has been the worst of the lot by winning percentage.

John Wall, the top overall pick, has had a terrible season.  He could improve in the coming seasons, but right now he has the “indicia” of a big time busto.  I expected him to struggle, but I did not expect him to post an MWS of -1.00 or lower.  Last night against the Bucks he looked uninterested and mediocre. 

Another player who is performing poorly is Wall’s college teammate DeMarcus Cousins.  He has been a major disappointment.  He’s a complete bubblehead.   His problem is he turns the ball over too much, he can’t shoot free throws, and he takes too many attempts from “no man’s land” (outside the lane, but inside the three point line).  Hoopdata’s stats show Cousins takes 65% of his shots from No Man’s Land and hits on only 31% of those attempts.  That’s way too many jumpers for a man of his size and length.  Throw it down, big man!

The other player who has disappointed me is Utah’s Gordon Hayward.  I don’t know why I thought he would be productive, but I did.  He has not been.  He looks physically unprepared for NBA combat.

Besides those 3, the other big flops have been Wesley Johnson, Udoh, Aminu, and Xavier Henry.  I thought Johnson would play better, but college performance suggested the other three players would not be good.  Xavier Henry might be the worst player in the NBA.  He does nothing well.

On the other side of the coin, Philadelphia’s Evan Turner has quietly put together a decent season.  He cannot find his shot but he has contributed well in other areas for the Sixers.  Turner shows how multi-skilled players present a lower risk to teams that draft them. 

The real standout from the Lottery is Indiana’s Paul George.  He has been outstanding.  He was physically prepared for the NBA, and his transition to the pro ranks has been very smooth.  He will be a productive player for many seasons.

Two rookies who have put up great stats, but who do not rate as highly as they might in MWS, are Detroit’s Greg Monroe and Toronto’s Ed Davis.  Monroe has really surprised me.  His college career provided no indication that he would be as productive as he has been for the Pistons.  But, like Ed Davis, he has so far proven a poor defender.  His Opponent Win Score  is canceling out his personal Win Score.  But that can be corrected.

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