NCAA Picks (by the preponderance of the numbers)

Below I list the teams that ought to win if the greater weight of numbers dictates the various outcomes.  Not just the numbers I generated, but other numbers generated elsewhere as well.  Of course, remember in around 24% of the outcomes in each round, the weaker team prevails.  I leave it to you to decide where those contrarian outcomes will fall.

Here’s how I’m going to do it.  For the games where the numbers aren’t close, I just list the winner.  In the games where the numbers are close, I list 6 categories of statistics:  the four I provided in my last post, plus the “Simple Rating System” from college-basketball-reference, and what is called “Adjusted Scoring Margin” taken from a site called “Raymond’s Rankings”. 

I chose the winner in each close game by an eyeball assessment of the different numbers, giving the least weight to the first two numbers because they are unadjusted.  If the scale did not seem to clearly tip in one direction or the other, I broke the stalemate using KenPom’s Ratings.

When I characterize a game as a “clear favorite”, it doesn’t mean I’m guaranteeing a win by the particular team, it simply means the numbers aren’t that close. 

Also, the numbers in some instances go against the prevailing winds.  For example, everyone loves George Mason over the slumping Villanova Wildcats, but if you go by the numbers, Villanova becomes the favorite. 

Finally, a disclaimer.  Just use this as a guide to tell you who are the probable favorites.  After that, use your own intuition. 

Second Round Close Games: 

	MWS	eFG	AdjMWS	AdjEffDiff	SRS	AdjScMg
George Mas	18.71	7.8	19.71	18.7	11.98	12.3
Villanova	12.06	3.3	24.91	19.1	15.72	16.1
West Virg	9.89	2.8	27.33	22.6	16.51	16.9
Clemson	12.49	4.8	20.29	17.1	13.63	14.1
Xavier	13.56	5.6	18.09	17.3	12.37	12.32
Marquette	13.54	1.4	25.62	21.3	15.25	15.47
Michigan	4.04	3.3	18.46	16.9	13.2	11.7
Tennessee	5.91	0.8	18.63	15.3	11.9	10.8
Cincinnati	16.59	3.5	24.51	23.1	15.7	13.4
Missouri	14.24	2.6	22.81	21.8	15.7	14.3
Temple	15.84	4.1	20.52	17.2	12.7	11.7
Penn State	0.96	-0.7	19.13	15.1	12.1	10.6
UNLV	9.39	5.9	18.08	20.4	15.4	14.5
Illinois	12.15	7.7	28.64	22.4	16.7	15.4
Tex A&M	13.11	3.8	20.24	18.7	13.3	11.5
Flor St	14.76	6.6	23.97	17.1	12.9	12.1
Butler	10.71	2.2	15.77	16.5	10.8	11.3
ODU	18.51	1.4	20.96	14.1	9.1	8.9
Kan State	12.86	2.7	24.93	20.6	15.1	13.6
Utah State	23.55	9.2	23.81	23.1	13.8	13.8
Gonzaga	21.81	7.6	25.31	19.9	14.3	13.3
St Johns	4.86	-1.1	20.17	18.1	13.9	12.3
UCLA	10.26	4.6	20.63	15.2	12.1	10.5
Mich State	6.51	1.1	24.95	17.2	13.9	12.7

Second Round Clear Favorites:

OSU…Kentucky…Syracuse…Washington…UNC…Duke…Arizona…Texas…UConn…San Diego State…Kansas…Vanderbilt…Louisville…Georgetown…Purdue…Notre Dame…Pittsburgh…BYU…Florida

Third Round Close Games:

Washington	20.24	7.9	30.63	26.9	20.9	19.1
North Car	17.51	3.9	31.71	24.8	18.7	17.3
Cincinnati	16.59	3.5	24.51	23.1	15.7	13.7
Uconn	13.31	3.3	27.85	21.9	17.3	15.6
Vandy	14.14	8.1	23.94	20.7	15.5	14.5
Louisville	17.41	8.7	28.05	24.1	19.4	17.6
Gtown	10.01	7.8	28.05	22.5	15.7	14.3
Purdue	15.21	5.5	29.23	28.9	20.2	18.9
Notre Dame	19.41	7.5	31.61	24.9	19.2	17.1
Flor St	14.76	6.6	23.97	17.1	12.9	12.1
Utah State	23.55	9.2	23.81	23.1	13.8	13.8
Wisconsin	13.91	4.1	27.93	28.5	19.1	17.6
Gonzaga	21.81	7.6	25.31	19.9	14.3	13.3
BYU	20.91	5.9	28.57	27.5	19.1	18.6
Mich State	6.51	1.1	24.95	17.2	13.9	12.7
Florida	15.74	3.6	24.97	21.4	15.8	13.9

Third Round Clear Favorites:

Ohio State..Kentucky…Syracuse…Duke…Texas…San Diego State…Kansas…Pittsburgh

Fourth Round Close Games:

Purdue	15.21	5.5	29.23	28.9	20.2	18.9
Notre Dame	19.41	7.5	31.61	24.9	19.2	17.1
Washington	20.24	7.9	30.63	26.9	20.9	19.1
Syracuse	20.71	7.2	32.91	25.7	19.3	17.6
San Diego St	21.51	6.8	30.59	27.8	18.5	18.3
Uconn	13.31	3.3	27.85	21.9	17.3	15.6

Fourth Round Clear Favorites

Ohio State…Duke…Kansas…Pittsburgh…BYU

Final Four Teams:

Ohio State…Duke…Kansas…Pittsburgh (bold, bold selections… but other than the Texas-Duke game, the numbers clearly favor all of the #1 seeds)

Championship Game:

Ohio State vs. Kansas

Champion:

Kansas