I’m doing a statistical analysis of the three matchups between the Chicago Bulls and the Miami Heat this season (all won by Chicago). I am not finished yet, but these things have become clear:
1. The Bulls have a decided advantage at PF and C.
2. Chris Bosh (MWS: -2.61) has played horribly against Chicago. Significantly, he has not had a single good performance in any of the three games.
3. Dwyane Wade has been average (MWS: +0.10), which is well below his standards, but mainly because he had a very poor third game against the Bulls. If you throw that out, he’s been his usual self.
4. LeBron James missed the first game against the Bulls, but tore up the pea patch in Games 2 and 3 (MWS: +5.28). Interestingly, as I mentioned, it wasn’t enough to bring victory in either game.
5. The Chicago bigs have controlled the frontcourt. Omar Asik (MWS: +5.63), Carlos Boozer (MWS: +1.17), and Joahkim Noah (MWS: +2.47) have all played very well, whereas Miami’s bigs have not played well at all.
6. I know we are going to hear endless chatter about how Derrick Rose is “carrying” the Bulls, but against Miami, and in general, that is not the case. Rose has been slightly below average against the Heat this season, and that is a position you would think the Bulls would decisively win.
7. Wayne Winston suggests the key to victory for the Bulls is Kyle Korver (among reserves). But my data shows he’s just been okay (MWS: +0.24). The real difference maker off the bench for Chicago against the Heat has been Ronnie Brewer (+1.22) and backup point guard CJ Watson (+2.11).