At the moment, the Bucks have a 39 win roster

To come up with a rough sketch of the Milwaukee Bucks win potential, I listed the personnel the Milwaukee Bucks are committed to next season.  Then I went back into the archives and calculated those players wins and losses for the past three seasons.  Then I added all the wins and losses to come up with a group winning percentage, regardless of playing time alloted.

I came up with a winning percentage of 0.485%.  That would reflect a 39.8 win roster.

Next I calculated the wins and losses that would be produced if each of the Bucks players had a season that equaled their best season in the last three seasons.  Then I added the wins and losses in the same manner to come up with a combined winning percentage. The winning percentage I came up with was 0.545%, which reflects a 44.7 win team.

Finally, I did the opposite, calculating the wins and losses produced if each roster Buck had a season that reflected his worst performance over the last three seasons. The winning percentage I calculated was 0.380%, which reflects a 31.2 win team.

The median win total between the two was 38.1 wins, quite close to the average win production calculated above.

It seems the team is stuck in this “mediocre” zone, and has been stuck there for the past several seasons. That is because they have so few high win producers on their roster. 

Bogut is a good win producer, but he has no history of health, which lowers his totals. Delfino is a good win producer, but coaches see him as a limited player, and therefore give him limited minutes. Jennings has shown himself to be a slightly below average win producer, with Moute being just the opposite. Brockman is a good win producer, but he has never been tested over full-time minutes, and likely will never get those minutes.

Without big time win producers at the top of your roster, your horizon always appears flat. That is the world the Bucks are stuck in at the moment.

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One Response to “At the moment, the Bucks have a 39 win roster”

  1. Chicago Tim Says:

    The Bulls don’t have huge win producers, do they?

    Didn’t they succeed mostly by ridding themselves of any bad players? Of course, the lack of superstars hurt them in the playoffs. But they did well in the regular season without any big-time win producers — which is why there was such a backlash when Rose won the MVP. Rose was their biggest win producer for the season, but doesn’t compare well to James or Wade or Howard or Paul or the like. Still, there is something to be said for filling a team with at least average players at every position while waiting for a superstar. (And there is still hope that Rose will grow into a superstar.)

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