2011-12 NBA Prediction: A season of ugly basketball

If past is precedent, then NBA nation should look forward to a season of ugly basketball.

In the season preceding the last truncated NBA season, meaning 1997-98, the collective NBA Team Win Score average was 39.39.  In the season following the last truncated NBA season, meaning 1999-2000, the collective NBA Team Win Score average was 40.15.  During the last truncated NBA season, meaning the 50 game schedule that followed the lockout in 1998-99, the collective NBA Team Win Score average was 36.79, a substantial decline (and the lowest NBA Team Win Score average since the watered down NBA seasons that immediately preceded the NBA-ABA merger in 1976).

The reason for the dip in Team Win Score is simple to explain.  In the shortened 1998-99 NBA season, the players had a hard time putting the basketball into the basket.  The NBA team “Effective Scoring Average” for that season (Points – FGAs – .5FTAs / Games Played) was a meager 0.48 points per game.  In the two seasons that sandwiched the shortened season, the ESAs were 2.73 points per game (1997-98) and 2.74 points per game (1999-2000), numbers that are pretty much the NBA norm.

If history repeats itself, NBA fans should expect to hear a lot of “clunks” and “doinks” and “bangs” at their local NBA arena.  Those will be caused by plentiful missed field goals. 

 

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One Response to “2011-12 NBA Prediction: A season of ugly basketball”

  1. As promised, NBA Scoring Efficiency way down because of lockout « The Courtside Analyst Says:

    [...] they read the Courtside Analyst post prior to the season, they would have anticipated the ugly basketball.  I wrote back then that in labor shortened [...]

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