Posts Tagged ‘LeBron James’

LeBron James’ Incredible Season (2011-12 Miami Heat Win Chart)

July 10, 2012

I guess LeBron James was on something of a mission last season.  He not only helped the Miami Heat to their second World Championship, he also turned in one of the great regular seasons of all time.

Click Here to view the Miami Heat Win Chart

Click Here for a full explanation of every column in each Win Chart

ANALYSIS

1. All the Way with LBJ

I have not concluded all of my Marginal Win Score calculations for the truncated season, but LBJ will certainly be the MVP in this corner of the world, just as he is in every other sane corner of the world.  I don’t think anyone else will come within 5 games of his VALUE rating.  He was magnificent.  At one point in the season, he was outproducing 1967-68 Wilt Chamberlain, which was stunning, but he could not keep it up.  Nevertheless, he had a season for the ages.

2. Wade righted himself

Halfway through the season, Dwyane Wade was underproducing.  He certainly righted himself by the end and had a highly productive year.  The only reason his VALUE rating isn’t higher is because he did was injured and unavailable for a lot of the season.  Otherwise, his Marginal Win Score was right about where it always has been.

3. Bosh has a mediocre season

Lucky LeBron carried so much weight this season, because the third member of the supposed Big 3, Chris Bosh, had a very mediocre season.  His Personal Winning Percentage was well down from last season.  The team needs him though, and appears to be better with him, because it is so thin in talent.  But, he just wasn’t that valuable in an abstract sense.

4. Junior Members need some love

Two guys who were actually more valuable than Bosh were fellow big man Udonis Haslem, and the much maligned PG Mario Chalmers.  Each of those two had pretty productive seasons.  They don’t seem to get much credit, however.  In fact, Chalmers seems like the guy the Big 3 love to abuse.  Nevertheless, the Heat don’t win a championship without his work, and without the stellar work produced by Mr. Haslem.

5. Two decent small forwards

The Heat also got decent play from the two veteran SFs Mike Miller and Shane Battier.  Each guy has produced better numbers in the past, but when you combine the two, they made a pretty nice contribution to the Heat.

6. Garbage Depth

Its great to have such magnificence at the top of your roster, because the Heat had absolute garbage for depth.  Joel Anthony has never been any good.  I have no idea how Juwan Howard managed to be the last surviving member of the Fab 5, because he hasn’t been productive this century, and newcomer PG Norris Cole, who actually had promising numbers coming out of college, was dreadful — he actually produced negative wins.  But, as I said, when you have two NBA All-Time All-Timers at the top of your roster, you’re always going to have a look at an NBA championship, and that has certainly been the case for the Heat.

 

Holy crap… so far LeBron’s having the greatest NBA season ever!!

February 25, 2012

Using my estimate of what a player’s Marginal Win Score probably was, I believe the most productive individual professional basketball season (measured by wins attributed to the player) was Wilt Chamberlain’s 1967-68 season with the Philadelphia 76ers.  I estimate he posted a Marginal Win Score of +7.34 in 1967-68, that he was responsible for 19.9 of the Sixers 21 wins above 0.500%, and I gave him a Value Ranking of approximately 47.8, which is simply off the charts (last season’s Marginal Win Score MVP, Dwight Howard, had a Value Ranking of 33.4).

While my numbers are based upon estimates, for various reasons I think I am in the right ballpark with Wilt, but for historical reasons I thought a MWS of +7.00 was no longer achievable in the modern age (a player has to almost thoroughly dominate every opponent he faces to a productive degree that the pace of today’s game seemed to make unachievable).  Incredibly, I was wrong.

LeBron James is currently posting a Marginal Win Score of +7.35, just slightly better than the Marginal Win Score posted by Chamberlain in 1968.  I can’t really express how shocking this is.  Part of the reason Wilt was able to post such a high MWS is because he only played against a handful of opposing centers.  Thus, if he were more dominant than that small group, he could post big numbers over them night in and night out.

Somehow, though, LeBron is “Wilting” the opposing small forwards in the NBA.  He’s doing it mainly with extremely efficient scoring, coupled with his normal “stat box” full of positive winning statistics (or “Win Score” as we call it).  LeBron is averaging 20.14 points per 48 minutes more than his counterparts at small forward (82%) and power forward (18%), yet he is only using 12.8 more “scoring attempts” (FGAs +.5FTAs) per 48 to do it.  That’s an incredible “marginal” gap in efficient scoring.  Then you throw in the fact that he rebounds well for a small forward, and you especially add the fact that he hands out assists like a point guard, and you have yourself a mid-season that has been slightly better than Wilt’s brilliant campaign.

On the whole, I have LeBron producing about 8.7 wins and (-3.7) losses, which means he is responsible for +6.2 of the Miami Heat’s 10.0 wins above 0.500% (note= the Heat are 27-7.  In sports vernacular, they are “20 games above 0.500%, but in mathematical terms they have 10 wins above 0.500%.  20 wins above doesn’t work.  If you remove 20 wins, those must become losses, which would put the Heat at 7-27.  If you remove 10 wins, they are 17-17.  So when I say “Wins Above 0.500%” I mean literal wins above 0.500%.)

Let’s see if he can keep the pace up for the second half of the season.

Ranking the 2012 NBA All-Stars according to Value Added

February 10, 2012

The NBA released its selections for the 2012 All-Star team.  Needless to say there are a lot of snubs, and some real headscratchers.  How the hell did Deron Williams get nominated ahead of Rajon Rondo?  Williams is having an AWFUL season; Rondo is having his normal brilliant season.

In an effort to assess the overall strength of both the fan and coaches selections, I have ranked each of the All-Stars by VALUE.  The rankings are presented below (to understand each column, consult the Courtside Glossary for a simple explanation of each).  Based on my calculations, LeBron James is the best All Star, but some of the players voted in by the fans (Carmelo, for instance) and nominated by the coaches (Chris Bosh and Deron Williams) do not belong anywhere near an All Star game roster.

Value Ranking of the 2012 NBA All-Stars

ALL STARS WS DWS MWS W% W__L W>0.5% VALUE
L James 17.75 4.49 6.63 1.627 6.0__(-2.3) 4.2 10.2
K Love 17.78 6.48 5.65 1.461 5.7__(-1.8) 3.7 9.4
K Durant 14.14 4.93 4.59 1.284 5.0__(-1.1) 3.1 8.1
D Howard 19.39 10.35 4.52 1.269 4.9__(-1.0) 2.9 7.9
A Iguodala 12.67 4.33 4.17 1.211 4.3__(-0.7) 2.5 6.8
B Griffin 14.57 8.32 3.12 1.033 3.6__(-0.1) 1.8 5.4
S Nash 11.86 4.84 3.51 1.098 3.3__(-0.3) 1.8 5.1
D Rose 9.05 3.89 2.58 0.941 3.3__0.2 1.6 4.9
P Pierce 10.29 4.29 2.99 1.011 3.2__(-0.1) 1.6 4.8
L Deng 9.74 4.21 2.76 0.971 3.2__0.1 1.6 4.8
A Bynum 18.08 12.07 3.01 1.012 3.0__0.0 1.5 4.5
C Paul 13.09 6.32 3.38 1.077 2.9__(-0.2) 1.6 4.5
M Gasol 14.39 11.34 1.52 0.761 3.1__0.9 1.1 4.2
K Bryant 8.22 5.15 1.53 0.763 3.0__1.0 1.1 4.1
L Alridge 12.64 9.97 1.33 0.729 2.9__1.1 0.9 3.8
J Johnson 6.91 4.03 1.44 0.747 2.8__1.0 0.9 3.7
D Wade 9.22 3.79 2.71 0.963 2.3__0.1 1.1 3.4
R Westbrook 7.46 5.67 0.89 0.655 2.5__1.3 0.6 3.1
R Hibbert 14.26 11.72 1.27 0.718 2.2__0.9 0.7 2.9
T Parker 7.09 5.81 0.64 0.611 2.3__1.5 0.4 2.7
C Bosh 11.51 10.54 0.49 0.585 2.2__1.6 0.3 2.5
D Nowitzki 10.12 9.36 0.38 0.567 1.6__1.3 0.2 1.8
C Anthony 6.86 6.88 -0.01 0.501 1.6__1.5 0.1 1.6
D Williams 5.82 8.82 -1.49 0.248 1.0__3.0 -1.1 -0.1
AVERAGES 11.79 6.98 2.39 0.911 1.4 4.6

LeBron, Love and Durant are the top All-Stars

As I mentioned above, the very sensitive LeBron James is having a magnificent season.   Behind him, Kevin Love (the man everyone assured me would be the next “Big Country Reeves”) is having another spectacular season, despite his recent suspension for his Suh Stomp on the Houston Rocket PF Luis Scola.  And, in the top 3 we also have SF Kevin Durant.   With the most recent setback to Portland C Greg Oden, it appears Durant was the better choice in that draft.

Behind those three stands Dwight Howard, the three time winner of the Marginal Win Score MVP.  Howard is having a down season by his standards, and it is mainly because his defensive effort has declined.

After that you have the grossly underappreciated Andre Iguodala, the highly productive 76er SF.  He is having a great season.

The only other player I will mention is PG Derrick Rose.  Last season he was named the MVP, although most analytical NBA writers argued that he was not close to being the Association’s Most Valuable Player.  But, give him his due.  He has really blossomed under Chicago’s new regime, and his value keeps going up.

The Biggest Snubs left off this year’s All Star Rosters

The biggest snubs in the All Star nomination process were

C Tyson Chandler (Value 5.9)

SG James Harden (Value 4.2)

PF/C Pau Gasol (Value 5.4)

PG Rajon Rondo (Value 4.1)

SF Gerald Wallace (Value 4.9)

PF/C Carlos Boozer (Value 4.9)


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