Posts Tagged ‘Miami Heat’

LeBron James’ Incredible Season (2011-12 Miami Heat Win Chart)

July 10, 2012

I guess LeBron James was on something of a mission last season.  He not only helped the Miami Heat to their second World Championship, he also turned in one of the great regular seasons of all time.

Click Here to view the Miami Heat Win Chart

Click Here for a full explanation of every column in each Win Chart

ANALYSIS

1. All the Way with LBJ

I have not concluded all of my Marginal Win Score calculations for the truncated season, but LBJ will certainly be the MVP in this corner of the world, just as he is in every other sane corner of the world.  I don’t think anyone else will come within 5 games of his VALUE rating.  He was magnificent.  At one point in the season, he was outproducing 1967-68 Wilt Chamberlain, which was stunning, but he could not keep it up.  Nevertheless, he had a season for the ages.

2. Wade righted himself

Halfway through the season, Dwyane Wade was underproducing.  He certainly righted himself by the end and had a highly productive year.  The only reason his VALUE rating isn’t higher is because he did was injured and unavailable for a lot of the season.  Otherwise, his Marginal Win Score was right about where it always has been.

3. Bosh has a mediocre season

Lucky LeBron carried so much weight this season, because the third member of the supposed Big 3, Chris Bosh, had a very mediocre season.  His Personal Winning Percentage was well down from last season.  The team needs him though, and appears to be better with him, because it is so thin in talent.  But, he just wasn’t that valuable in an abstract sense.

4. Junior Members need some love

Two guys who were actually more valuable than Bosh were fellow big man Udonis Haslem, and the much maligned PG Mario Chalmers.  Each of those two had pretty productive seasons.  They don’t seem to get much credit, however.  In fact, Chalmers seems like the guy the Big 3 love to abuse.  Nevertheless, the Heat don’t win a championship without his work, and without the stellar work produced by Mr. Haslem.

5. Two decent small forwards

The Heat also got decent play from the two veteran SFs Mike Miller and Shane Battier.  Each guy has produced better numbers in the past, but when you combine the two, they made a pretty nice contribution to the Heat.

6. Garbage Depth

Its great to have such magnificence at the top of your roster, because the Heat had absolute garbage for depth.  Joel Anthony has never been any good.  I have no idea how Juwan Howard managed to be the last surviving member of the Fab 5, because he hasn’t been productive this century, and newcomer PG Norris Cole, who actually had promising numbers coming out of college, was dreadful — he actually produced negative wins.  But, as I said, when you have two NBA All-Time All-Timers at the top of your roster, you’re always going to have a look at an NBA championship, and that has certainly been the case for the Heat.

 

Holy crap… so far LeBron’s having the greatest NBA season ever!!

February 25, 2012

Using my estimate of what a player’s Marginal Win Score probably was, I believe the most productive individual professional basketball season (measured by wins attributed to the player) was Wilt Chamberlain’s 1967-68 season with the Philadelphia 76ers.  I estimate he posted a Marginal Win Score of +7.34 in 1967-68, that he was responsible for 19.9 of the Sixers 21 wins above 0.500%, and I gave him a Value Ranking of approximately 47.8, which is simply off the charts (last season’s Marginal Win Score MVP, Dwight Howard, had a Value Ranking of 33.4).

While my numbers are based upon estimates, for various reasons I think I am in the right ballpark with Wilt, but for historical reasons I thought a MWS of +7.00 was no longer achievable in the modern age (a player has to almost thoroughly dominate every opponent he faces to a productive degree that the pace of today’s game seemed to make unachievable).  Incredibly, I was wrong.

LeBron James is currently posting a Marginal Win Score of +7.35, just slightly better than the Marginal Win Score posted by Chamberlain in 1968.  I can’t really express how shocking this is.  Part of the reason Wilt was able to post such a high MWS is because he only played against a handful of opposing centers.  Thus, if he were more dominant than that small group, he could post big numbers over them night in and night out.

Somehow, though, LeBron is “Wilting” the opposing small forwards in the NBA.  He’s doing it mainly with extremely efficient scoring, coupled with his normal “stat box” full of positive winning statistics (or “Win Score” as we call it).  LeBron is averaging 20.14 points per 48 minutes more than his counterparts at small forward (82%) and power forward (18%), yet he is only using 12.8 more “scoring attempts” (FGAs +.5FTAs) per 48 to do it.  That’s an incredible “marginal” gap in efficient scoring.  Then you throw in the fact that he rebounds well for a small forward, and you especially add the fact that he hands out assists like a point guard, and you have yourself a mid-season that has been slightly better than Wilt’s brilliant campaign.

On the whole, I have LeBron producing about 8.7 wins and (-3.7) losses, which means he is responsible for +6.2 of the Miami Heat’s 10.0 wins above 0.500% (note= the Heat are 27-7.  In sports vernacular, they are “20 games above 0.500%, but in mathematical terms they have 10 wins above 0.500%.  20 wins above doesn’t work.  If you remove 20 wins, those must become losses, which would put the Heat at 7-27.  If you remove 10 wins, they are 17-17.  So when I say “Wins Above 0.500%” I mean literal wins above 0.500%.)

Let’s see if he can keep the pace up for the second half of the season.

NBA Power Rankings by “Ty Rating”: the rising Heat and the sinking Celts

February 17, 2012

Using the same formula, and the same gambling website (Statfox Sports), that I used to power rank the likely NCAA tournament field, I power ranked the National Basketball Association.

My NBA chart is set up a bit differently because I condensed three steps.  Instead of posting each team’s Win Score and Defensive Win Score, followed by the expected winning percentage and then the winning percentage the rest of the league is posting against the same schedule, and then the “Ty Rating” based upon that, instead I post below the “Comparative Win Score” the “Comparative Defensive Win Score” and the Ty Rating based upon the same.  Let me provide a quick example.

Example using the #20 Milwaukee Bucks

Below on the chart, the 20th ranked team is the Milwaukee Bucks.  Under “WS” the Bucks post a “-1.1″.  That means the Bucks Team Win Score is 1.1 points below the Win Score the rest of the NBA is posting against the same schedule.  Under “DWS” it says “-2.1″.  That means that the Bucks are allowing their Opponents to post Win Scores that are 2.1 points higher than the same teams have been able to post against the rest of the NBA.  (Defensive Win Scores that are indicated as negative mean a below average performance).  If you add the two numbers together, you arrive at “-3.2″.  You then divide that by 10 to arrive at “-0.32″.  This is the Bucks “absolute” Marginal Win Score, from which I can calculate their absolute winning percentage, which is their “Ty Rating”.  Essentially, it is the difference between the winning percentage the team has achieved versus the winning percentage the rest of the NBA has achieved against the same schedule plus 0.500.  So, while the Bucks expected winning percentage is 0.404% (11.7 wins and 17.3 losses — the team is actually 12-17), because the rest of the NBA is only playing 0.455% basketball against the same schedule the Bucks have played, the Bucks “absolute” winning percentage, or their “Ty Rating” is 0.449%, so its a little better.

Here is the chart:

NBA WS DWS Ty Rating
1 Miami 7.6 6.1 0.733
2 Chic 7.1 6.4 0.731
3 OKC 5.5 5.1 0.682
4 LA Lakers 3.4 5.5 0.653
5 Denv 6.8 1.1 0.636
6 LA Clip 4.9 2.7 0.631
7 Orlando 2.6 3.7 0.609
8 Dallas 3.1 2.9 0.606
9 Phila 0.4 4.8 0.591
10 Atl 3.4 1.1 0.579
11 San An 3.1 0.8 0.569
12 Port 0.8 2.6 0.557
13 Memp -1.5 2.8 0.524
14 Hous -1.3 1.7 0.509
15 Ind -1.8 1.9 0.504
16 Minn -1.1 1.1 0.501
17 Bost -4.9 4.8 0.499
18 Utah -0.6 -0.7 0.479
19 NOH  -4.9 1.9 0.451
20 Milw -1.1 -2.1 0.449
21 NY Knicks -4.6 1.1 0.441
22 Phoenix -0.8 -2.8 0.441
23 Clev -1.6 -2.2 0.438
24 Gold St 1.8 -6.1 0.429
25 Sacra -3.5 -5.9 0.343
26 Tor -7.1 -3.1 0.329
27 NJ Nets -5.7 -6.6 0.294
28 Detroit -8.7 -4.2 0.283
29 Wash -6.6 -7.4 0.265
30 Char -9.9 -9.2 0.181

NBA Ty Ratings

Heat and Bulls clearly the NBA elite

Its neck-and-neck between the Miami Heat and the Chicago Bulls for best team in the NBA.  The two teams also rank #1 and #2 in overall offensive efficiency (by which I mean relative Win Score), and they invert that order for #1 and #2 in overall defensive teams in the NBA as well (by which I mean relative Defensive Win Score).

Three teams surprised me with their placement.  The Lakers are a lot higher than I anticipated.  They may have some fight left in the Purple and Gold.  And on the other side, the Boston Celtics placed much lower than I expected at #17.  The Celtics still play top 10 defense, but without Kendrick Perkins, the team is really struggling on the boards, and that is costing them games.  The other team who placed much lower than I anticipated was the New York Knickerbockers.  However, as I discussed two posts ago, the addition of world famous PG Jeremy Lin, the Knicks have shored up a major weakness and may begin to ascend the rankings.

Another surprise was the Minnesota Timberwolves.  I knew they were playing much better this season, but it is actually their defense that is propelling them more so than their offense.  That is surprising.  The aforementioned Bucks seem to have been stuck in the #18-#21 power ranking range throughout the entire Scott Skiles/John Hammond administration.  That is disappointing, to say the least.

Finally, we have the putrid Charlotte Bobcats and almost-as-putrid Washington Wizards.  What is the thread that runs between each organization?  Michael Jeffrey Jordan was in a management position for each.  Bucks fans, we cannot be thankful for much, but we can be thankful for this:  Herb Kohl prevented Michael Jordan from bringing his eye for talent to Milwaukee.  Jordan makes Isiah Thomas look like Branch Rickey.

Finally, has anyone heard from PG John Wall?  I thought he was supposed to be such a game changer for the Wizards when they selected him number one overall last season.  He certainly has not been.  His career is heading toward oblivion, just as many of us predicted when he was drafted.


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