Bucks-Cavs: When the dynamite isn’t going boom

The Bucks have played, what now?  Three pretty damn good games in a row?  Yet they have all of one win to show for it.

Tonight by Point Value over Average, the Milwaukee Bucks were (+5.6).  The problem was, their positive work was entirely defensive (+19.0).  The offense just wasn’t there (-13.4).

The Bucks, as has been said and written innumerable times, are completely dependent on the three ball.  Without it, they almost can’t score.  And if they don’t hear “Boom goes the dynamite” as that poor Ball St sportscaster famously said about Reggie Miller’s three, they just don’t seem to win.  (Trivia:  Do you remember that somewhere in that ill-fated sportscast he pronounced Andrew Bogut “Andrew Bo-Got”?).

But you can’t be angry with their overall effort.  They played a good team very well. If they play this tough every night, they are going to win a lot of games.   I just wish it wouldn’t always be so frickin painful to watch.

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4 Responses to “Bucks-Cavs: When the dynamite isn’t going boom”

  1. Moin Says:

    Hey Ty,

    This is kind of a pingback to your post about “luck” in the NBA. I read through your post and was somewhat interested, so I ran my own simulations. I think you are forgetting that the 16 game NFL schedule produces a much coarser scale of than an 82 game NBA season. Yes, in a 16 game schedule, completely random/luck would mean that 20% of the teams end up with 8-8 records. But if you extrapolate that out to over 82 games, then only about 8.6% should have a perfect 41-41 record per season. In fact the distribution goes about: 38-44: 7.15%, 39-43: 7.989%, 40-42: 8.604%, 41-41: 8.648%, 42-40: 8.604%, 43-39: 7.989%, 44-38: 7.15%. And it goes on from that.

    8.6% leads to about 2.58 teams with 41-41 records every year.

    I would actually be interested in running the equivalent of the original analysis on basketball games if I find enough free time. I think it could be interesting to take a little bit of a different angle (signal processing, probability, hypothesis testing, K-L divergence and such).

    • tywill33 Says:

      Well done!!!!!

      You just did the work my lazyass wasn’t willing to do!

      Check out my follow up today, and please critique… and I’d be interested in seeing the results if you ever run that analysis

  2. TC from Racine Says:

    that third quarter…man that third quarter killed the Bucks. we can’t blame this one on the refs, they just didn’t get it done tonight. yeh, they gave the Celtics hell, shoulda beaten the Lakers and played three good quarters against the Cavs (rather than 5 good minutes). bittersweet losses…

    • tywill33 Says:


      First off… i just found out who the hell the “Warhawks” were!! UW-Whitewater… the best business school in Wisconsin I’m told (I was listening to the Quette basketball game and they mentioned that the Warhawks were out in Virginia today).

      And you are right on with your points… but you know what I was thinking? The Bucks are doing about as well as they can do. They’re playing defense out of their asses and they move the ball beautifully on offense. They just aren’t that offensively talented.

      More on that later…

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