Wisconsin Badgers basketball Win Chart

This is a momentous post.  This is a first for me as a blogger.  Tonight I have broken into the realm of college basketball analysis with the first ever “NCAA Basketball Win Chart”.  It is linked to below and it covers the 2009-10 Wisconsin Badgers basketball team and it allocates responsibility for the team’s wins and losses to date using an amended version of MWS48 fitted to the college game and known as MWS40.  (Its the same exact thing as MWS48 except as I say the numbers are adjusted to account for the 200 minutes of player court action in a college game).

The reason I did it was (1) if you look up at the top it says “… pro and college basketball” and I haven’t produced one single college post yet (note: if you notice the name on the banner is now just “Courtside Analyst”.  That name, for whatever reason, “Lulu“ed almost three times better than “The Courtside Analyst” or “Bucks Diary”).

But more importantly, reason (2) is I was asked by a reader via email what impact I thought the Wisconsin Badgers basketball team would feel from the loss of forward Jon Leuer.  I sincerely did not know, so I worked it out.  In the words of those bullshit artist nurses who came around to your kindergarten on vaccination day, “they’re gonna feel a little sting”.

CLICK HERE for the 2009-10 Wisconsin Badgers Win Chart

(through 16 games)

Leuer and Hughes the best, but who is Wilson?

I’m going to keep my comments brief because I really haven’t studied the Badgers other than watching them play Marquette, so beyond Travon Hughes and Bohannon I’m not really familiar with the team’s personnel.

But here’s what the numbers tell me.  Leuer was the team’s best win producer.  They will almost certainly be much worse off until he returns from his broken wrist.  But they won’t be dead in the water by any means.  They play fabulous Win Score defense, and almost the entire roster of regulars produces positive MWS40, although I’m sure most of that is still padding from the pre-holiday schedule.  Although they did play Duke and Gonzaga.

The one possible avenue of recovery I see is this Wilson kid from Cleveland Ohio.  He’s a forward and, although I don’t know his situation, he has been quite productive, indeed productive well beyond the minutes he’s been alloted.

So getting him on the court, if that is an option, could help cushion the team’s fall.  He could play the forward/guard spot with Nankivil and Jarmusz playing the big forward spots (there are really only 3 spots in college basketball — 2 “big” forwards, a forward/guard, and usually two interchangeable point guard types).

Or they could play Taylor as a third guard.  They have a few options.

The point is that, yes, Leuer’s absence will knock them off their pedestal a bit (KenPom has them in the Top 5 in his adjusted efficiency rankings — I’d never seen them that high ever before).  But they should make it to the tournament and get things rolling then.

In the very near future I’m planning to do Win Charts for the Marquette Warriors and the Minnesota Golden Gophers as well.

FOOTNOTE:  If anyone knows of any Badger blogs that might be interested in this analysis, or might have readers who might wish to critique the same, could you please leave a referral comment.  Thank you.

Advertisements

Tags: , , , , , , ,

3 Responses to “Wisconsin Badgers basketball Win Chart”

  1. Josh Says:

    Ty,

    I have done an analysis using my own system and it comes out pretty close to what you have. However, I value rebounds less, so Bruesewitz comes out not quite as high.

    In fact, I did a couple posts with an analysis of the effect on the win margin for the Badgers for the Northwestern game.

    One question – did you find a site that shows the counterpart opponent production in college?

    Josh.

    • tywill33 Says:

      There you are! Where have you been? You were right about something you brought up a while ago and I was going to prop you on it, but now I can’t remember what the hell it was… I’ll think of it!

    • tywill33 Says:

      No… I’ll explain how I work around that in a page. Basically I use the same assumptions as I use when I do an Historical analysis. It’ll miss a bit when there’s a strong defender on a weak team or vice versa, but not by much.

      I came up with it so as not to be reliant on 82games. I’m actually thinking about using that method for all calculations. The results are strikingly similar and I’m starting to have some reservations about 82 games methodology. The numbers from up date to update sometimes do not jibe.

      My goal is to hook up with someone who can design software that will produce “reverse boxscores” using the method that suits my system (I would need it to be able to recognize and place any five man units according to defensive assignment. Its actually pretty easy. All you need are heights, weights, and usual positions. Height and position would dominate unless met with a significant addition of weight. Thus if you had a 6’7 guy and a 6’9 guy you would order them left right on the spectrum unless the 67 guy were Wes Unseld weight… and so on)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: