Bucks’ Bogut not quite an All-Star

With his excellent play so far this season (and his health… knock, knock) there have been more than a few on the Bucks blogosphere who have argued that Bucks center Andrew Bogut ought to be an All-Star.  My numbers indicate that is not true.

In order for Bogut to be an All-Star he must displace one of the big men who made the team.  I did a Marginal Win Score analysis of the five “big men” on the Eastern team, and Bogut’s very good numbers are not good enough to supplant any of the chosen five.

Click Here to see “Andrew Bogut vs. Eastern All-Star Big Men”

As the chart shows, all five of the power forward/centers chosen for the Eastern Conference team have superior Win Contributions, Player Win Averages, and Marginal Win Scores, as well as more Win Credits.  In fact, the only category Bogut bests any of them in is “Game Responsibilities” where he is slightly better than the oft injured Boston Celtic PF Kevin Garnett (though Garnett still has a higher Win Contribution Index and more Win Credits).

So even though Andrew Bogut has had a very impressive season in Milwaukee, and even though he has been the most valuable Milwaukee Bucks player by far, he isn’t quite at the level where we can legitimately call him a deserving Eastern Conference All-Star… yet.

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7 Responses to “Bucks’ Bogut not quite an All-Star”

  1. Phillip Molly Malone Says:

    Statictics can tell you anything! 99% people know that!
    But seriously, your stats are just saying Bogut missed out not because he isn’t the best player of that bunch or that he contributed the most, but that he is on the worst team!

    I don’t have the stats here, but if you look at the stats vs last year, which teams better performance can most be put down to one of these 5 players? With out having done the analysis, I bet the extra wins of players teams can most be put down to Bogut amoung these 5! Thats why he should be an AllStar. But thats okay, as he says himself, he will just work harder to help his team and let the AS game take care of itself.
    JTMC
    Molly
    GO BOGGYMAN!

  2. tywill33 Says:

    No, no… you’re misunderstanding the statistics. Bogut’s Marginal Win Score is independent of his teammates. It is created by the player himself.

    The confusion may be resulting from the fact that I labeled the category “Team Win_Loss Credits”. Those wins are not connected to the team. Those are the number of team wins that Bogut himself can be credited with producing as a result of his outproducing the opponent centers.

    I don’t think he’s on the worst team, either. The Bucks, I believe, will prove stronger than the Toronto Raptors. They almost beat them in Toronto and they’ve beaten them from pillar to post every time they’ve played them in Milwaukee.

    Thanks for the comments.

    • Phillip Molly Malone Says:

      So if Bogut outscores his direct opponent and the bucks lose, he still gets credited with a win in your stats? So you are saying the actual result of the match doesn’t have any baring on your stats? If it does, then it is wrong to say that his team mates have no barring on the stats.

      • tywill33 Says:

        Phillip,

        Go to the Pages on the right. I try to explain the system in there. If that’s not clear then after if you have questions I’ll try to answer. I’m not being a dick, I just don’t have time at the moment to reiterate. But thank you for reading and thanks for the comments. (and by the way, Bogut’s numbers put him ahead of 2/3s of the centers — at least — in the NBA, so in no way am I criticizing him)

        Ty

      • Colin Says:

        The way I understand it, yes – the result of the game shouldn’t have any bearing on individual MWS. If Bogut has a great game and the Bucks still lose, he’ll be credited with a positive contribution and the other players will have a negative score. The team’s total MWS should add up to a positive in a win and a negative number in a loss, but that doesn’t mean each individual player will always fall right in line with the group.

  3. Blake Says:

    My god I really thought he was better than Horford. I just can’t rap my head around AL HORFORD having a bigger win contribution than Andrew. I’m half-ashamed right now.

    • tywill33 Says:

      Remember though, “better” is hard to define. I just go by which bud outproduces the buds he has to cover. Horford’s a machine in that regard.

      You may also be allowing your memory of his father, Tito, to cloud your judgment. Tito was a god awful Buck.

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