Catching up with old Milwaukee Bucks

I thought it about time to do an update on how some of our old friends are doing for their new teams.  Generally the ones I analyzed are not doing that well (including my hero, Ramon Sessions… he’s been a major disappointment in Minnesota).

CLICK HERE to see “Old Friends in New Places” Win Chart

As you can see if you click on the link, I limited the analysis to only “significant” ex-Bucks… with the term “significant” completely determined by me (besides, the insignificants seem to find their way back to town, See for example, Royal “with Cheese” Ivey).

The five ex-Bucks I considered were Detroit’s Charlie Villanueva, Minnesota’s Ramon Sessions, San Antonio’s Richard Jefferson, New Jersey’s Yi Jianlian, and Indiana’s TJ Ford.  All five of the aformentioned are sub .500% win contributors so far in 2009-10, with Ford being the only one of the five near .500% (ironically, because he’s basically getting run out of Indiana).  Collectively the five ex-Bucks have produced for their new organizations approximately 6.6 wins and 17.9 losses.  (All except Sessions and Jefferson are producing almost exactly as they produced in Milwaukee).

Villanueva seems to be slipping quickly

I was surprised in a sense to see the results for Charlie Villanueva.  He’s back down near his career range MWS48 average, posting a -1.23.  The strange thing is, it was just over a month ago that I did an analysis of the Pistons and found that CV was just below the .500% mark.  How could he have dropped so far so fast?

As for the others, Sessions is struggling as I mentioned, and Richard Jefferson is off his usual production as well.   In fact, he’s been downright awful for the Spurs.  Isn’t it funny to look back on all the ridiculous angst let loose last summer because the Bucks wisely dumped Jefferson’s bloated contract?  “Oh, they’re giving up!!” the Chicken Little’s cried.  Those in the know knew the Bucks were not only making a wise financial move, they were making a move that would have little impact on their overall win total.  Scoring specialists like Jefferson, as has been pointed out ad nauseum, tend to be wildly overrated.  (Actually, I basically cried the same when they let Sessions go, so I should shut my mouth… with this caveat.  Its his defense that is way down.  That could be a coaching thing, as the entire Minnesota roster is a defensive horror show.  Would Coach Skiles have permitted Sessions to go lax in this area if he were still in Milwaukee?  That’s an open question.)

Finally, we have Yi Jianlian.  We can now definitively state that he is one of the worst “presumed to be good” players in the Association.  He is doing almost exactly the same substantial amount of harm for the New Jersey that he did for the Milwaukee Bucks.  Its pretty clear that whatever team employs him as a full-time starter will regret the move.  Once again, the Bucks were very, very wise to dump him as soon as they saw the first decent offer.

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9 Responses to “Catching up with old Milwaukee Bucks”

  1. Palamida Says:

    What do u chalk up sessions relatively poor play at Min. to? Motivation?
    How about PT, is he playing some SG again?
    BTW, just watched the Cle-Char game and boy oh boy, T. Thomas was just brutal, especially vs. Jamison (0-12 from the field, 5 of those misses of Clean Thomas blocks).
    That’s 3-1 to cha in the season series… that’s a matchup The Cavs would surely like to avoid in the first round.

    Ty, just a reminder i’m still waiting on that “secondary stats” answer :p

  2. tywill33 Says:

    I don’t know. Sometimes when you move teams, you don’t translate.

    What was that question again (note: sometimes during the day I try to sneak in some replies, but all I can see is the first sentence or two of the comment. That’s why sometimes my replies don’t make sense.)

  3. Palamida Says:

    When u calculate Mws, it appears that “secondary” stats are weighted the same as “possession” stats. Am I understanding it correctly and if so, why is that?
    That was the gist of the original question :p

    • tywill33 Says:

      As a whole I guess they are. But remember, those labels, “possessionary” and “secondary” — and the groupings themselves — are completely meaningless and arbitrary. I made them up myself just to try to make it easier for people to conceptualize what’s going on, what’s being measured. I could just as easily mix up them up differently and match them differently.

      Let me get to your other question too. With steals, for every team except the Bucks, I distribute “responsibility” for steals according to the NBA average positional distribution. For the Bucks I distribute them according to the player who is guarding the player who made the steal.

      Neither method is particularly superior to the other, and they both work out to nearly the same distributive totals. Steals and blocks, and to some extent personal fouls, are more “matching” statistics than “defensive” statistics. In other words, the opponent can’t really do a hell of a lot to influence productivity in those areas, but if his team is to win, those are nonetheless statistics that count toward the total he must match or exceed.

  4. Palamida Says:

    Also, 82games.com counterpart stats don’t seem to record Steals. where do u get the data for counterpart steals from?

  5. Palamida Says:

    Hmm, As I understand it the linear weights put forth by Berri are a result of regression. Naturally they’re not perfect but I think they do have merit.
    My question is why did u decide to alter those weights? basically in your system 1 possession=1 Pt= 1 reb =1 stl (which is the same as Berri’s weights) but it also equals an assist and a Blk which not only differs from Berri but also seems to be clearly false. As we all concur an Assist isn’t worth a possession and neither does a Blk. Can u elaborate on the reasoning behind this method?

  6. brgulker Says:

    Re: Charlie V —

    His shooting has been horrible lately. It’s hard to call it a slump, because this poor shooting is simply making him fall back on career averages. His PT is down, and it seems like he’s using every available chance to shoot the ball — which is driving his % down.

    And his defense. Oh lord his defense. I can’t begin to describe how bad his defense has been. Unbelieveably bad.

  7. Palamida Says:

    Re: Sessions
    I was curious so I looked at his numbers trying to identify in what areas his production dropped and in fact it hasn’t really dropped all that much:
    He’s getting 6 mins less per game, if you account for that here’s how he fares:
    His Efg% is actually up a bit. His Rebs,Stls,Blks,To’s and PF are virtually identical. His AST dropped significantly from 8.3 per 40 to 5.9. Also he’s totally into the old “I inexplicably forgot how shoot FT’s” routine; at 78% his rookie season, and 79.4% in his Soph he only converts 66.7% this season while also getting to the line a lil less often. even with this drop his TS% remains the same (52.5 last season, 52 current season) due to the slight increase in Efg%.
    So what do we have here really? not much…. As for the Assists, The bucks surely weren’t an offensive powerhouse, but I pity the guy that is assigned to distribute the ball to Minny’s second unit. (that’s bound to explain at least some of the drop-off in that category). To wrap it up, If Sessions had a couple more dimes a game and would revert to his career norm in Ft% he would be the exact same player. With that said, you’d expect an improvement from a player his age, so standing pat isn’t really an achievement hee. Thoughts?

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