Moute surging… playoff chances dwindling?

I updated the Bucks Win Chart through Saturday night’s nice win over the Charlotte Bobcats.

As you can see from the chart, Luc Moute continues his climb in productivity.  His climb directly coincides with his getting more minutes at the power forward and many fewer at the small forward. 

Despite his size disadvantage, he seems to be a better power forward than small forward.  I think its because playing the power forward position puts him in better rebounding position.

Playoff Odds don’t budge

If you look at the Monte Carlo prognosticators (here and here), the Bucks don’t have much of a chance at the postseason.  The Bucks won two games over the weekend and I don’t think their playoff odds improved a lick. 

The Bulls are actually now a better bet for the postseason than the Charlotte Bobcats.  But with each team at plus 80% and the Bucks languishing in the 40s, its hard to see how they squeeze out a playoff appearance.

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11 Responses to “Moute surging… playoff chances dwindling?”

  1. Palamida Says:

    Skiles Ball;
    Did u know the bucks are the league’s best in Net turnovers?
    Their combo of creating To’s (3rd in the league) and avoiding them (4th) is good for no.1 in that dpt.

    • tywill33 Says:

      That’s how they do it… you put your finger right on it.

      They’re not tremendous field goal defenders, and they give up a ton of free throws (as everyone probably knows), but they get a lot of extra possessions just as you suggest — through turnovers.

      Ty

      • Ryan Says:

        I was trying to figure out where their 9 extra FG a game over the opponent come from, thinking about this same thing. Found 2 less TOs a game than them on average, 3 extra offensive boards but couldn’t get that to add up to 9 extra shots. If you click on my name it’ll take you there.

    • tywill33 Says:

      If you look at the boxscore, and this is not definitive, because I only glanced, but it looks as though Curry gave up near what he produced… presuming he was defending Joe Johnson for most of the night, which I do not know to be a fact.

  2. Palamida Says:

    Re: Curry
    Well the Opp. SG numbers i referenced in the “hairdo” post comment are from 82gamesl
    Honestly Ty, with the Warriors I don’t know how 82games can do their job, lol. They have their “logical order” thing going on but with a backcourt of Ellis,Curry and Morrow how can you tell which is which?
    This gets even trickier if a Warrior A is matched up against a opposing team A on one end, but matches with some1 else on the other… When will Nelson retire already? Ugh….
    If he was matched up against JJ last game then I agree, but that’s just one game… For whatever they’re worth 82games’s stats indicate he had been a poor PG and a great SG, go figure.

    • Palamida Says:

      Re: league pass doing the trick:
      Ok, I just watched the first quarter of the aforementioned Hawks\Warriors game, prepare to be surprised….
      The Hawks started 4 guys over 6’6. The GSW with Maggette out started with 4 guys under 6’6 :p
      The kicker is the Mike Woodson assigned Johnson to guard Ellis, Bibby to guard Morrow and Marvin Williams to guard Curry! No shit.
      At the other end Curry Checked Bibby and not Johnson. the latter was checked by Ellis and at least in the first quarter put a lot of hurt on the Warriors while being guarded by the much smaller Ellis.
      Don’t know if that was the state of things the entire game but if so, Ellis is the culprit and Curry’s production was not only legit, it’s even enhanced by the fact Bibby had a poor showing (basically 0 winscore in 29 mins).
      Hmm…How about that?
      Any1 watched the whole game? I’d do it myself but I hate seeing movies with spoilers :p

      • Blake Says:

        Curry still hasn’t produced that well at PG according to 82games.com. It’s obvious he’s a good player and I guess Bibby just had a bad game. lol

  3. Palamida Says:

    Looks like u guys are going over 0.500 tonight.
    Halftime at Msg, the usual: Bogut demolishing a PF imitating a Center (Lee), LRBM making T-mac regret he’s playing again on the defensive end and the Bucks getting to the line for the first time IN THE GAME right at the same time the halftime buzzer hits :p.

  4. Josh Says:

    Ty,

    Be wary of the Monte Carlo results. I don’t think they can take into account the fact that John Salmons is now a Buck and not a Bull. That has an impact on both teams that is positive for the Bucks, but simulations generally look at the season as a whole, so they don’t see this.

  5. Jerble Says:

    The two Monte Carlo simulations had the bucks in the 40s percent to make the playoffs. That’s not so far from a toss-up! They have some chance of beating out Charlotte, Chicago, Toronto or Miami. But they only have to beat out one of them.

    Just got back from checking the latest figures. Both now have the Bucks above 50% to make the playoffs even tho’ there are still 8 teams with higher probabilities than the Bucks of making it! Oh, the glories of probability! What that says is that “probably” one of the teams ahead of the Bucks will stumble and fall behind Milwaukee- just can’t say which.

  6. Jerble Says:

    Oops! I should have said, “will stumble and [end the season] behind Milwaukee”. -Charlotte is now behind Milwaukee but is odds on to re-pass the Bucks in the standings.

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