The Awesomeness… and screw the playoff probs

This is going to be the lamest post ever, because I only have, literally two minutes to write it, but the Bucks rock so I have to write something.

One, why isn’t Scott Skiles the prominent candidate for Coach of the Year?  The media (not BucksNation) unanimously believed the Bucks would suck.  Clearly, they do not suck.  That is usually the criteria for COY.  Why is he not mentioned.

Two, the Bucks rock, and particularly the frontcourt duo of Andrew and Luc rock.  In the past month the two have been… what’s the word I’m searching for… unbelievable.  The switch of Moute to power forward has made his productivity soar and Bogut is on an Australian mission.  In the Knick game the two had MWS48 raw surpluses that were just off-the-chart.  And I’ll do the Charlotte New Orleans blowout when I get time, but the Win Score for each player was amazing, so I’m certain MWS48 numbers will follow suit.  The two are simply producing awesomely well.

Three, I’m done with playoff probabilities for this reason.  In my enduring stupidity, it took me a while to realize they have little utility.  They are basically saying to me and to BucksNation “Here’s their chances… unless they play better or play worse”.  Basically, because the playoff race in the Eastern Conference is so close, any “unexpected” win or loss changes the numbers drastically.   But you knew that or could have figured it out.

Fourth, I have the Bucks Win Chart updated through the Knicks game.  I will work on the Hornets game later today.  I’m interested to see how high Bogut’s numbers will get, as well as Moute’s.  Moute has really soared this past month.  He’s been great, and so has Bogut.

Fifth, is it about gloating time?  BucksNation and this blog (actually the old MVN blog entitled “Bucks Diary”) and Professor David Berri of the WoW Journal all had the Bucks around the 38 to 40 win mark, and that’s where they will most likely wind up.  Everyone else, the so-called national pro basketball experts, had the team in the garbage can of the Eastern Conference.  We were right and they were wrong.  

Sixth, Go Bucks!

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20 Responses to “The Awesomeness… and screw the playoff probs”

  1. Palamida Says:

    “We were right and they were wrong” Too bad they’ll never admit it.
    I watched the game last night (I think Bogut is the second best Center in the league right now, no kidding) and when the game was still “on the line” the commentators spoke about recent and overall Bucks success, they specifically referenced the pre-season expectations. What they argued was basically that Jennings was responsible for the turnaround along with Bogut’s improved health that had led him to play up to his potential. And this recent success? You guessed it -John Salmons. They talked about him and mentioned his scoring totals in all off his games as a buck. they went on to describe how he scored the “most important shot) in every one of those games.
    So good luck with the “They were wrong part” :p.

    P.S and Skiles? During the OKC\PHX game a few days ago, one of the commentators suggested Skiles should win COY since he took the OKC from PJ Carlesimo last season with the league’s worst record and in a year and a half made them into a playoff team. So at least Skiles has that guy’s vote, right?

  2. tywill33 Says:

    Yeah, you’re absolutely right… no accountability on their part. I don’t know why it bugs me so much, but it does.

    On the last point, did you mean the OKC coach and not Skiles?

    HOw about Moute too? What a frickin warrior!

  3. Palamida Says:

    No I meant Skiles! that’s what the commentator said :p
    Small markets are doomed, i’m bettting that specific commentator only watched a bucks game when the team he’s covering played against them :p

    • tywill33 Says:

      No doubt. That’s how that shit goes. That’s probably how 90% of the Heisman voters cast their vote, too. But, on that kind of thing I give them a pass… you simply cannot watch every team.

      But you can do some research and educate yourself a bit.

      You and I are fighting a losing battle, but its the good fight.

      I need to comment on your excellent comment about how Salmons is likely to get the credit for any perceived improvement in the team.

      First, the wins the team has accumulated were “winnable” games anyway… not guaranteed wins, but playing the “that’s a win, that’s a loss” game, I counted many of them as wins before the Bucks even got Salmons. Second, the improvement in the team actually occured last month but was hidden by the fact that most of the games were on the road and wins were not being produced. So the Bucks have been playing nice ball for a while now.

  4. brgulker Says:

    Re: Gloating.

    I think that at some point, enough people will have to take Berri’s work (and obviously your derivative work as well) seriously, because these metrics are simply so accurate.

    My Pistons are another case in point example this season as well. Lots of people had them fighting for a playoff spot between 4-8, and both yours and Berri’s metric had them falling fall short. Who was right?

    • tywill33 Says:

      Youre being very generous to give me any credit. All credit to Berri.

      The reason I think his metric is being resisted is the implication behind it, or the perceived implication behind it.

      It implies that the big uglies can have a larger impact on wins than the gunners. People find that distasteful (Simmons book even mentions how the television networks specifically market the game to counter this very notion).

      • brgulker Says:

        Well, your work is certainly derivative of Dr. Berri, but your work is still your work. You go several steps beyond Dr. Berri, and I think you deserve credit for doing so.

      • brgulker Says:

        Speaking of which, at one point, he used to feature other blogs that were utilizing his metric. I wonder if he still does that …

    • tywill33 Says:

      Oh BrG,

      One last point to your point.

      This morning I was listening to some sports radio station and they had a comment on from one of the USA women’s hockey players and she was talking about why they made it to the Gold Medal game.

      She was explaining how “hard they worked” and how they were “peaking at the right time” blah, blah, BULLSHIT.

      How about the fact that there’s literally only one other decent women’s team in the entire world and you don’t have to play that team until the Gold Medal game? Did that factor in at all??

      Oh, my point being, in the industry of sports, beliefs about what causes success are somewhat self fulfilling and extremely hard to change.

  5. Palamida Says:

    Brgulker, I’m not so sure about that. When I read comments in the WoW Journal i’m just amazed every time. The ppl who comment there have obviously been “exposed” to Berri’s work and yet on every “Detroit case” (btw, the A.I\Billups trade is another fine example) people still come up with reasonings.
    And when something appears to be wrong there are 10 comments dismissing his work altogether!
    I wouldn’t hold my breath, is what i’m saying :p
    P.S like this guy who keeps shouting from every rooftop on every topic how Berri said Toronto would win X and how their “over performance” is an absolute proof to Berri’s model Invalidity.

    • tywill33 Says:

      Did you ever notice on the site HoopData, otherwise a fabulous site, they begrudgingly list Win Score but they do so with the comment “Heavily favors big men” or something, which is absolutely untrue. And then they provide what they call a Modified version of Win Score, which ignores the central idea behind Win Score (that shots taken, whether made or not, constitute an opportunity cost) and is therefore as similar to Win Score as red is to blue.

    • brgulker Says:

      Palamida, I’m not holding my breath 🙂

    • brgulker Says:

      That would be khandor … He’s made his views clear at my favorite Pistons blog and was actually all but kicked out. I like khandor. He’s an interesting guy to talk to. But he’s as opinionated as all get out.

  6. Why are the Bucks not Horrible? « The Wages of Wins Journal Says:

    […] For more on this topic – and anything else related to the Milwaukee Bucks — one should read the Courtside Analyst (formally Bucks Diary).  Ty Willihnganz consistently offers NBA analysis that is well worth reading.  […]

  7. TC from Racine Says:

    can’t forget the Wizards…if I recall correctly, you couldn’t find many season previews that didn’t predict Agent Zero gloriously returning them to contention…and a few even thought they might challenge the Magic for the division. They were borderline at best even before Arenas decided to play with guns.

  8. Palamida Says:

    Re: Hoopdata
    I know, the “favors big men” is outright malicious… The game favors Big men not the metric. It’s like assigning a weight to second in a 100 meters sprint and then add to the metric – (favors fast guys) :p.
    Dan Rosenbaum has a vast history of feuding with Berri. Don’t know the whole story there, but as a bystander, just reading posts at the Apbrmetrics forum I always got the sense there was a lot of ad hominem overtones to those discussions.
    and since we seem to be playing this game, i’m picking the “career of Allen Iverson” to be the poster child, the “franchise player” of the WoW metric :p.
    So many twists and turns 🙂 The initial story covered the first book, but I can still remember the Vegas odds shifting frantically towards Denver when A.I was traded. Melo and A.I? that’s a championship right there!
    Oh wait a second, they didn’t have enough time to gel stories after the first first round elimination; Then some other made up rationalization after the fact following the second. Then the Detroit fiasco.
    And what other NBA “legend” can claim turning two franchises around in one season? A.I accomplished that in his glorious stint in Memphis and just just sailed away, to save his beloved Sixers. not to mention the 2010 Allstar cherry on top.
    Did you know that on November 9th 2009 RealGm did a survey and asked:
    “Where does Allen Iverson rank amongst the all-time greats?
    11,213 voters voted the following (note the possible answer for further amusement):
    1.) Top-20 (27%)
    2.) Top-30 (20%)
    3.) Top-40 (9%)
    4.) Top-50 (24%)
    5.) Beyond (19%)

    There wasn’t a single season in his long career where A.I was even in the top 50 for that season.

    Classic stuff. My pick hands down, anybody got a better one? bring it on, playing for bragging rights.

  9. Palamida Says:

    Re: Jennings
    Utterly off-topic, but where are all the Jennings fans now?
    after another bad shooting night (“winnable” game indeed, but nonetheless u have to actually win those and they did) I wondered how low does Jennings rank shooting wise. Despite a surprising 37.9% from 3P, only Alston, Duhon, Posey and Larry hughes shoot worse among player who’ve played at least 20 MPG in at least 20 games. If u account for 3’s (Efg%) Miami’s Alston (as opposed to NJ”s) and Duhon surpass him but YI, Devin harris and stuckey rank below. that’s rather poor even for a rookie, not mention his FGA are up there and for no good reason. Shame. But when ur picks aren’t based on data, more often then not – you get what u payed for.
    P.S how ’bout Thabeet demoted to the D-league?

  10. Abe Says:

    It’s just a matter of people doing what A) has been done before and B) what is easiest for them to do. Case in point, OBP/AVG in baseball. Did you know that they guy who invented baseball’s boxscore was actually a cricket fan? The absurdity of that. Enjoy the blog, best Bucks stuff on the net.

    wisconsinsportscolony.blogspot.com

    • tywill33 Says:

      You’re absolutely right.

      The thing that kills me is, how much revenue did the Bucks lose simply because of unwarranted, lazy, bad buzz created by the “go along with crowd” national experts?

      Remember how they said the Bucks were “raising the white flag” when they traded Richard Jefferson? How motherfucking ridiculous does that notion seem today? (xcuse the Torrette’s)

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