Bucks road to playoffs still difficult

After years of suffering, BucksNation is in a state of near giddiness, brought on by the five game win streak and the team’s terrific month of February.  But be careful.  I even heard Homer True say the team could get to 45 wins and the fifth seed.   That would be tough.  Looking at the landscape ahead, the Bucks might be lucky just to get to the playoffs.

First of  all, the teams they are battling with are playing equally excellent basketball, particularly the Chicago Bulls, who are coming  nearer to being “uncatchable” with every impressive win they post.

Second, there simply aren’t that many gravy wins left on the Bucks schedule.  I count seven confident wins, which would get them to 36 games, and would not do the trick.  The bottom line is this.  The Bucks have been excellent when it comes to gathering wins against the dregs of the NBA.  That’s commendable.  That’s the sign of a team on the rise.  But to get to the playoffs, they will have to do what they’ve had trouble doing — get wins against teams that are better than them.

Let’s go through the schedule game-by-game, without dates:

BUCKS REMAINING 2009-10 SCHEDULE

at Miami (can they win again in Miami?  I see this as difficult — L)

at Atlanta (no chance — L)

Washington (should be  a win, but they haven’t won against Wash.  Therefore I can  only say they will win one of the backtoback — W)

at Washington (should be a win, but possible L)

Cleveland (this is one of those games where they need to show up — L)

Boston (they HAVE to win one of 3 contests with the weakened Celts… but the Celts  remain a tough road team — tentative W)

Utah (See, Cleveland game — I’ll call it a VERY tentative W)

Indiana (Have to win this one, have to… no room for stumbles — W)

at LAC (scary trip, will win at most two, I’m going to say one — W)

at Sacramento (L)

at Denver (L)

Atlanta (See Cleveland, but for some reason I think Hawks doable but — L)

Philly (Have to win — W)

Miami (Have to win — W)

Memphis (Have to win, but I feel a stumble somewhere in this  stretch — L)

LAC (Ugh, the Clippers scare me for whatever reason, but I’ll say — W)

at Cleveland (L)

at Charlotte (Charlotte mediocre on road, beast at home — L)

Phoenix (should be a win, but what about history? — W)

at Chicago (showdown game, close L)

New Jersey (come on now, W)

at Philly (lost badly on Opening Night, can’t lose here, CANT — W)

Boston (they have to get at least one versus the Cs — L)

Atlanta (ditto for Atlanta — W)

at Boston (L… unless Celtics resting crippled vets)

41 wins?… Possibly, but tough

So I give them in my unscientific hand count 41 wins, but they have to win all the winnables and they CANNOT have anymore Pistons/Rockets stumble games, especially not at home.   And they have to collect a big time scalp or two, probably at home.  They will stumble somewhere, so I think 39 is probably realistic.  Will 39 get them in?  I don’t think so.  Will 41?  Probably.  If the Bucks win anymore than 41, then that means they are definitely peaking at the right time, and could be a minor threat in the postseason.

But they simply have to find a way to stay off  the Secaucus Loser Panel this  spring.   Failure is not an option.

Advertisements

12 Responses to “Bucks road to playoffs still difficult”

  1. Blake Says:

    I see at least 2 more wins that should be chalked up on the board, I don’t see us losing in Sacramento. Even if they did beat us at home…I just don’t.

    And Wade has been ruled out for tomorrow nights game, so mark that game up as a win!

    • tywill33 Says:

      I call what I did the “Packer method” because I do the same thing every August when I get my hands on a Packer schedule.

      Very unscientific. I try to err on the side of caution, so yeah, there probably are more wins.

  2. Palamida Says:

    The important thing to remember is that the Bucks aren’t playing in a vacumm :
    With wade out, the Miami game tonight should be a W and that’s a win against a direct opponent, bringing the bucks (if they do indeed get the W) to 30-28, leaving Miami at 29-30 and Charlotte at 28-29. Philly is too far down to catch up and the Bulls are probably too good for the Bucks to catch up to the other way. So basically the race for the two remaining spots is between those three. The Bucks don’t necessarily have to get to 41, they just need to be above those two. If the Bucks prevail tonight and hold on vs. Miami at home you might wanna consider going through their schedule because they’re the ones in need of catching up and we don’t even know if Wade is gonna miss more time. It’s also important to remember that if the race for 3-4 in the east will be decided by then (and it’s entirely possible) the Celts and Hawks might have nothing to play for in the last three games leaving the aspiring Bucks to play their B squads and opening up some more “winnable” games.

    • tywill33 Says:

      There’s also the chance that some of those playoff teams the Bucks play at the end will totally halfass.

      I heard about the Wade deal. I hope the Bucks don’t let their intensity down because of it. I vaguely remember a game against the Celtics in the 80s where Bird was out and the Bucks let Fred Roberts beat them.

      Fuck an A!! I found it!!

      http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198611120BOS.html

      • Palamida Says:

        “There’s also the chance that some of those playoff teams the Bucks play at the end will totally halfass” Err…. that’s kind of what I said :p

        “if the race for 3-4 in the east will be decided by then (and it’s entirely possible) the Celts and Hawks might have nothing to play for in the last three games leaving the aspiring Bucks to play their B squads and opening up some more “winnable” games.”

  3. TC from Racine Says:

    well, so far so good, the streak continues. Like you, though, I have a feeling the Hawks are gonna win tomorrow’s game, if only because I figure they wanna make everybody forget about how they pissed away Friday’s game as soon as possible. I figure however Moute’s able to affect Josh Smith will be key, what do you think?

  4. Palamida Says:

    “Bucks center Andrew Bogut came to his teammate’s side after Jennings put on an impressive passing display in Milwaukee’s 94-71 rout of Miami on Saturday. “Brandon hasn’t been shooting a high percentage and he knows that,” Bogut said. “But he still helps us immensely. People are getting on him and media and fans are saying he isn’t playing as well as he was earlier in the season. “I beg to differ; we’re winning now. He’s the starting point guard on a winning team right now, so I think he’s doing a great job for us. He’s been huge and Luke Ridnour has been huge. One through 12, we don’t have any superstar players out there, and I think we’re playing basketball together.” (Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel)
    This whole thing made me wanna puke, I don’t know where to start.

    • Blake Says:

      Puke!? Why?

      • Palamida Says:

        re: puke
        Mainly because I thought Bogut Understood more about the game than the avg NBA player, i guess. “hasn’t been shooting at a high %” is a gross understatement – he’s actually 3rd from last (that is, in the entire NBA). Secondly “he’s helped us immensely” is outright false. in the earlier part of the season whilst still being over valued he was at least somewhat productive and thus “helpful”. The last few months he’s been awful to the extent that if he keeps it up he might end up in the negative range. even if he won’t get that low, production that is close to zero hurts your team, always, but it’s even worse when it comes from a starter that plays heavy mins. The worst part is Bogut’s used logic much like a 4 year old would: why does he beg to differ (on the criticism of the “Blind Chicken”? because “we’re winning now”. Cause and effect folks, cause and effect. he might as well say the Milwaukee snow is responsible for the “turnaround”.
        Lastly he argues that from 1-12 The Bucks don’t have superstar players. wrong again. He thinks apparently like most ppl ,that Star is a synonym for “big time scorer”.
        Bogut himself is a superstar and LRBM is another. Too bad he doesn’t know it.
        P.S I would like to congratulate The Blind Chicken for taking fewer shots lately but I suspect that has more to do with him giving up certain looks because his confidence is down and less with the fact that he realized he shouldn’t take those shots since he’s converting at such a low clip. Even with this decreased “usage” he can’t even convert at an average rate.
        perhaps that’s what one would expect from a guy who hit 25% from 3 in Europe!
        so Blake… Puke. Ty, u with me on this one?

      • tywill33 Says:

        Did I say puke?

  5. Blake Says:

    Seriously? Jennings is a 20 year old rookie. Don’t be so hard on the guy. He brings in tickets and he draws attention from opposing defenders while running the offense.

    Were winning with him starting and that’s all I really care about. Jennings was playing well at the start of the season and through November, he has simply hit the infamous ‘rookie wall’, so maybe we can expect better from him when he is more prepared next season.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: