Bucks numbers outstanding since All-Star break

The Bucks have a 10-2 record since the All-Star break.  But, they’ve played a somewhat weak schedule.  I wanted to find out how well they have performed after adjusting for that weak schedule.

It turns out that even after adjustment the Bucks have performed quite well.

The Bucks winning percentage in the last 12 games is +.289 higher than the winning percentage you would expect an average NBA team to achieve against the very same schedule, meaning the Bucks “Relative Winning Percentage” (as I call it) since the All Star break is roughly.685%.  To put that another way, since the All-Star break the Bucks have played like a team you would expect to win 56.5 games over the course of an 82 game season.  Very, very good.

Of course, in those 12 games the Bucks played a Cavalier team that was missing LeBron James and a Heat team that was missing Dwyane Wade.  I wondered what difference that made.  So I threw out those two games and recalculated.

After eliminating the two superstar-less games, the Bucks numbers go down a bit, but are still quite impressive.  The Bucks new Post All-Star break Relative Winning Percentage is .650%, still very good.  That is the equivalent of a 53.3 win team.

Team and Opponent Win Score

Anyway you slice it, the Bucks are playing outstanding basketball.  In fact, since the All-Star Break, their Team and Opponent Win Score per 48 averages are at near championship levels.

Their Team Win Score (roughly, their offense), is up to 49.40, and their Opponent Win Score (roughly, their defense) is down to 34.41 (the NBA  average is 43.60).  49.40-34.41 is a Win Score split you would normally get only from an elite team (click here to see the Team and Opponent Win Score averages for every NBA Finals participant from 2007 to 1977).  A team posting such numbers would expect to win 9.3 out of 12 games,  which is roughly the number of games the Bucks have won (10 games).

The Bucks, obviously, are not yet an elite team.  But they are most certainly taking steps in the right direction, and the national media is beginning to take notice.

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7 Responses to “Bucks numbers outstanding since All-Star break”

  1. Abe Says:

    Do you believe that your Win Score measure is the cause of winning basketball games, or that it is the effect of those winning teams?

    • tywill33 Says:

      The cause, if you will, comes in the margins, the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency. If we are playing one on one and I make 8 of 10 baskets, I played pretty efficient offense. But if you make 9 of 10, I lose.

      And what about rebounding, steals, and turnovers? Those also relate to efficiency, but they do so through attempts. If I shoot 8 of 10, that’s an efficient scoring performance, 80%. If you shoot 9 of 17, your scoring isn’t as efficient, but you still win because of the extra attempts you gave yourself, or the attempts you denied me, presumably through the three categories above.

  2. Palamida Says:

    I’m not Ty, but I think the answer to that question is simple:
    The numbers (WS) by themselves are a way of quantifying the production.
    “translating” the boxscore to the language of “who contributed to the win” (or loss).
    Assigning personal “credit” via box score stats in terms of wins and losses.
    Thus the Win Score measure is the cause;
    Players X of Team Y had A,B,C… stats. Then we “translate” those A,B,C into Win score (and opponent WS) and get a new “stat” let’s call it WS… (one for every player). BECAUSE player X1,X2…etc produced WS1,WS2 etc. The game was won (or lost); The sum of all those production “measurements” leads to the eventual outcome of the game (PTS scored and allowed).

  3. Houston Says:

    So… the win score is a measurement of how well players are playing, just as the win-loss record.

    The players PLAYING WELL is the cause of both a high win score and a high winning percentage.

    Just saw an interesting article on statistical analysis on ESPN. http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/14257/wall-street-journal-geeks-are-winners
    If you don’t feel like reading it, the summary is that teams that employ a statistician to help with basketball decisions have about a 60% winning percentage. Anyone know if the Bucks are actually employing a stat geek?

    • tywill33 Says:

      Would you people stop asking intelligent questions!!!! They force me to provide intelligent answers… which take time!!

      Kidding, I love it… and the quality of reader it shows.

      Please though, on deep questions you have to allow the author time.

      Cool?

    • tywill33 Says:

      Houston,

      I can’t argue with either point you make.

      Ty

  4. Abe Says:

    But is it viable to compare WS across the association. Let’s say that the Bucks make a trade. Would that WS be similar for their new team, eliminating such variables as the Skiles’ effect? Is Redd a net positive when healthy on THIS team? I don’t know how fair it is to chastise him for his overall Milwaukee career because he was terrible, and hurt, this season. I don’t think that is an accurate cause/effect.

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