Badgers in the Final Four??

There will be no NCAA picks from me this season for three reasons.

One, I don’t have time.  Two, I don’t think my system was as good as I claimed.  Three, even if you identify the stronger team in every contest, you’re still not that well off, because, as I outlined in a post a while back, on average around 30% of the games will be won by the weaker team.  I have no idea how to identify those upsets and so I don’t think my advice gets anyone all that far.  It worked for the first tournament, but that was just good fortune.

If you want something that’s probably better than anything I could produce, go to the WoW Journal and check out the Sagarin and Pomeroy picks.  Those two systems most probably identify accurately the stronger team in each of the given contests.  I would use those two brackets as your guide.

Once again, however, around 7 or 8 of the first round contests will be upsets, so the trick is to identify those games accurately.  By definition, I don’t think its possible.  But give it your best guess. Use every sports cliche at your disposal (“They’ve got a swagger“… “The momentum is with them“… etc) (Update:  I found an article that might guide you toward the likeliest upsets.  It says Sienna,  Houston, and Utah State are the most promising upset bids.  Thank the boys at Harvard Sports Analysis.  There, my work is done for this tournament.)

Notice if you will that BOTH systems have the Wisconsin Badgers advancing to the Final Four.  I’m interested to hear BadgerBucco chime in on that one.

Also, both systems have Duke in the Finals.  Boy, that would make me nervous.  Duke has burned me badly in each of the last two seasons, and their three point dependency makes them very volatile.  Pick them at your own peril.

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3 Responses to “Badgers in the Final Four??”

  1. BadgerBucco Says:

    Ty,

    The Badgers have a friendly draw with the weakest No. 1 seed and weakest No. 3 in their bracket. They have a friendly first round game as well. It sets up for a good run.

    Wisconsin ranks as a better team than any other in their bracket. The thing that concerns me, though is their play away from the Kohl Center. They have many quality wins, but few of those have come away from home. Maryland on a neutral court and Illinois away are the exceptions.

    If you look at their games against the other top teams in the Big Ten, you see a pattern emerge, where the Badgers win at home and lose on the road. That doesn’t inspire as much confidence in a Final Four run as the naked numbers suggest.

    With a likely match-up against a tough Temple squad in the second round, I see the Badgers being about as likely to bow out in the round of 32 as to make it to the Final Four. That said, I like their chances better this year going into the tournament than any other year I have witnessed.

    • tywill33 Says:

      They’ve been consistently Power Ranked rather high in every objective Power Ranking I’ve seen this season, including the British Professor Fearnheard’s Power Ranking. But popular opinion downgrades them… but if this blog stands for anything its that popular opinion ain’t shit!

  2. Palamida Says:

    Frankly, I know very little about the NCAA (not being from the states will do that to you :p).
    At a glance it seems rather clear that if in fact popular opinion downgrades them it’s because of their 23-8 record. Same way Kansas and Kentucky are being heralded (32-2) while Duke is seen as a team with less chance of taking it (29-5) even though in reality their Pyth. exp. suggest otherwise.
    It’s a very common mistake as probably all readers of this blog know already.
    Just wanted to point out that the discrepancy between the public expectation and the actual expectation probably stems from the discrepancy between the W\L records and the Pyth. exp.

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