My random NCAA picks

The last two seasons, I spent substantial time trying to analyze and figure out my NCAA picks.  This season I am spending about 15 minutes, or however long it takes to write this post.

I am picking these in real time using a mixture of Sagarin, Pomeroy, Prof  Fearnheard, and the Harvard Sports Analysis suggested upsets.  Remember, the benchmark is 70%.  Anything less than that and you don’t know what you’re talking about.  Anything above that and you guessed right on a couple  games.

Here we go:

First Round Winners

Kansas, Northern Iowa, MichSt, Maryland, San Diego State, Georgetown, Georgia Tech, Ohio St, Syracuse, Florida St., Butler, Vanderbilt, Minnesota, Pitt, BYU, Kansas St, Duke, California, Utah St, Sienna, Notre Dame, Baylor, St Mary’s, Villanova, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Temple, Wisconsin, Marquette, New Mexico, Missouri, West Virginia

Second Round Winners

Kansas, Mich St, Georgetown,  Ohio St, Syracuse, Butler, Pitt, Kansas St, Duke, Utah St, Baylor, Villanova, Kentucky, Temple, Marquette, West Virginia

Third Round Winners

Kansas, Georgetown, Butler, Kansas St, Duke, Baylor, Kentucky, West Virginia

Elite Eight Winners

Kansas, Kansas St, Duke, Kentucky

Final Four Winners

Kansas-Kentucky

Champion

Kansas

COMMENTS

Wow, that ended up being kind of uninspired.  I bailed on Wisconsin. Oh, I feel shitty about that.  Hopefully I’ll live to regret it.  But Temple’s defense is just stifling (Opp WS40: 18.4) and they choke off 3 point shooting very well (Opp 3pt: 28.8%).  I don’t think Wisconsin tends to play well against those type schools.

I just couldn’t go with Houston as an upset special, even though HSA suggested them.  They just didn’t perform well enough this season.

I’m riding the Butler bandwagon a bit.  They too play good defense and I loath Vanderbilt.

Ditto for Syracuse.  I don’t think they have the style that translates well in the postseason, but I could be wrong.

Oh, I have the Golden Gophers too.  Xavier seems weak this season, and Minnesota is potentially strong, though they tend to under-perform.

The smart money is on Duke, I guess.  So I had them going to the Final Four, but that is as far as I am willing to go.

Then I took Kansas to win it all, along with probably 75% of the bracket fillers across the country.

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