NCAA Results: Obama rocks everyone!

I’m ranking picks here on the Courtside Analyst, mine vs. Pomeroy’s vs. the ESPN “featured picks”.

So far,  Pomeroy and President Obama lead the way with 12 correct out of 16 (75%).

I’m having an okay showing (this post is somewhat discombobulated because I changed themes a bit in midstream, and because facts changed as I wrote it).

Of course, this season I went back to my “quick pick” method that has cost me so much money over the years.

So far, with just a two games left, it appears that according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency statistics, there have been only 3 upsets.  Had you picked with Pomeroy you would have gotten 11 of 14 correct, and it appears that Texas and New Mexico will win, so that means you would have had 13 of 16 with Pomeroy.  I would expect to see around 5 upsets tomorrow, if historical trends hold.

With my random picks, you would have finished day one with an alright 10 of 16.  This result illustrates the danger of trying to forecast upsets, as I tried to do this season.  If you miss, it has a ripple effect.  In fairness, though… wait a second, Wake Forest has just made a charge in overtime.   Wake Forest won!  Change my results to 11 of 16, tentatively (New Mexico suddenly looks in trouble).  That puts me at 69%, meaning about break even.  And change Pomeroy’s to 12 of 16 (tentatively), putting his “stronger” team bracket success rate at 75%.  (The thing I like this  season, though, is that I  am currently 4-0 on the “interior” picks — the 9 vs. 8 games and the 10 vs. 7 games).

So now the stronger teams have won 73% of the games (11 of 15, with New Mexico in trouble).  Bizarre how that number always hovers near 71%.

The seedings look a little suspect, though.  The Committee may not have done its homework. If New Mexico holds on, the higher seeds will have won only 9 of 16 games, a 56% showing, much lower than the 71% benchmark for upsets, indicating the Committee did not properly seed the teams according to strength.

New Mexico won.

So, day one ends up with:

NCAA PICK WARS

1. Ken Pomeroy: 12 of  16

1. President Obama: 12 of 16

2. TyWill‘s “15 minute method”: 11 of 16

3. Colin Cowherd: 10 of 16

3. Joe Lunardi: 10 of  16

3. Scott Van Pelt: 10 of 16

4. “Just Pick the Higher Seed” method: 9 of 16

4. Bill Simmons: 9 of 16

5. Fantasy Dork Matthew Berri: 8 of 16

5. “Expert” Dick Vitale: 8 of 16

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2 Responses to “NCAA Results: Obama rocks everyone!”

  1. Josh Says:

    Ty,

    Just wanted to say that I really like this Pick War thing you are doing. Keep it up.

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