Biggest Upset Day? Not really…

I heard a caller this morning on a sports radio program call yesterday’s NCAA results “The biggest upset day in NCAA tournament history”.

If he meant “biggest” by seeds going down, maybe.  If he meant “most upsets” I don’t think so.

As my last post pointed out, according to Ken Pomeroy’s “efficiency” statistics, the weaker team won only 4 of the 16 games.  That’s 25%, which is actually a little lower than the 29% you usually see on any given night of action.

The illusion that there were a ton of upsets is being profligated because of the NCAA committee’s misseedings.  If you went by seedings, then yest there were a ton of upsets.  Only 9 of the 16 higher seeds won.

But that’s the Committee’s mistake, it doesn’t actually reflect reality.

2 Responses to “Biggest Upset Day? Not really…”

  1. Blake Says:

    You bastard you guaranteed me a Siena win!


    • tywill33 Says:

      Blake, you saw what I did last year! Complete toilet picks… but I did “guarantee” it, you’re right. But you should know the “college” part of the subtitle to this blog is a complete fraud!!! Actually, the whole things a fraud. This has turned out to be Bucks Diary Mark II.

      Maybe next season I’ll try to broaden it… and buff up my analysis.

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