Back to the NCAA picks

I’m not going to go through all of the ESPN celebrities, but instead I compared my random, very quick picks against the National Consensus. 

The National Consensus got 23 right in the first round while I got 22.   The National Consensus got 9 of the Sweet Sixteen right, and so did I. 

I watch minimal college basketball.  All I did was look at Pomeroy’s efficiency numbers, consider the Harvard upset predictions, and then I went on hunches.  The Harvard picks were terrible.  They cost me two that I would never have picked.  I had Sienna, though, all the way.  I will not forgive them.

The point being the years I did all that research on the tournament were complete wastes.  Most people with minimal information can get around 70 to 75% right (of actual picks), and after that its mostly just luck.  That’s why people love to bet the NCAA tournament.  Anyone can win.

Oh, how’s President Obama doing? 

He was leading after Round One with 25 correct picks.  He’s still leading with 34 correct picks, although he too was humbled with only got 9 of the 16 Sweet Sixteen teams.

9 correct is actually a somewhat expected number

9 correct picks seems shitty, but its actually right in line with our earlier observation that the stronger team will win in college basketball only 75% of the time (in the NBA the stronger team wins .71% of the time).  Thus, the marker for a good pick performance in the first round was 24, which was exactly the Pomeroy efficiency ratings correct number. 

To get to the Sweet Sixteen, you multiply .75 by .75, you get .56.  If you multiply .56 by 16, you get 9.  Baboom. 

Once again, the predictable unpredictablility of the NCAA tournament.


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