Bucks a bit lucky in the last 10 games

I just checked DougStats.com looking for the Bucks statistics over the last 10 games.  Even though the Bucks have won 7 of 10, both Marginal Win Score and Pythagorean suggest they are pretty lucky to have won more than half their games.

The Milwaukee Bucks Team Marginal Win Score over the last 10 games has been 41.70.  That’s a bit below the NBA Team average of 43.60.  If the team had been playing average defense they would probably be below .500 over the past 10,

But they’ve played slightly above average defense, holding their opponents to a Team Win Score average per game of 41.85. 

Given that Team and Opponent Win Score, the Bucks should have won 4.9 games and lost 5.1 games, not 7 and 3.

This is in line with their overall scoring margin.  The Bucks are -3 points over the last 10 games, which projects to 4.9 victories over that stretch as well.

You will notice on DougStats, he keeps a statistic he calls “Tendex”.  Its an interesting derivation of NBA’s Efficiency statistic, but if you look at it, it has the same flaw as NBA Efficiency and most other models that refuse to recognize the opportunity cost of a shot, and therefore refuse to charge shooters for the full possessionary value of a shot.   Thus the Bucks Tendex over the last 10 games is far worse than their opponents, out of line with projected wins.  Indeed Tendex makes no claim that it is in any way relevant to a player’s wins produced.

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3 Responses to “Bucks a bit lucky in the last 10 games”

  1. Palamida Says:

    A question.
    If I recall correctly, part of the Salmons trade was the right to swap picks with the Bulls. Does anyone know if that’s a protected pick?
    If not, this has hilarious potential :p

  2. Abe Says:

    Not too worried about that since Bogut was out for one game, and potentially not 100% in 3 more that week or so before. Did we ever get word of why he was out?

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