Bucks vs. Bobcats: The MWS Story

The Fish that’s saving Milwaukee.  That’s what you can call John Salmons.

Once again last night he nearly singlehandedly saved the Bucks bacon.  Without his Win Contribution, it’s a blowout.

Before I give the MWS48 numbers, one quick point.  If you were watching the game in the traditional manner, you probably thought Charlotte’s Stephen Jackson had a monster game. From a possessionary standpoint, he did not. 

When watching games, we (meaning myself) have a tendency to overvalue the incidence when points are scored and severely undervalue the cost of missed baskets and turnovers. 

But if you reframe the game in your mind as a contest determined by the number of possessions a team turns into points, that conceit goes away.  You begin to see instead how 32 points might not constitute a monster game when the player has to use 31.5 “scoring” possessions to get those points. 

Then if you throw in the 6 possessions that player wasted with turnovers, the night diminishes even further.

I say this because if you look at Basketball-Reference.com, the average NBA team this season has used 7087 “scoring” possessions (FGAs + .5FTAs) and converted them into 7554 points.  That’s 1.06 points per scoring possession on average — average

Last night Jackson only converted the scoring possessions he used into 1.06 points.  Thus he used valuable Charlotte possessions and did not cash them in at NBA par value.  That seems like a cost, when put in those terms.  So what looked like a huge night wasn’t necessarily a huge night.

I only explain that to further illustrate the TRULY monster night turned in by the bearded fish, John Salmons.  Salmons converted 23 Bucks scoring possessions into 28 points.  That’s +5.0, and a cash-in value per scoring possession of +1.21 points.  Another outstanding night.  (And he did this despite getting cheap shotted by that well-known punk Jackson).

Are those Salmons jerseys flying off the racks?  They should be.  This guy is playing his ass off for the Milwaukee Bucks, and is threatening to go down in Bucks lore.

Here are the raw MWS numbers from last night’s game:

Raw MWS:  Bucks vs. Charlotte

1. John Salmons…(+9.0)
2. Ersan Ilyasova…(+2.5)
3. Luke Ridnour…(+1.5)
4. Jerry Stackhouse…(+1.0)
5. Kurt Thomas…(+1.0)
6. Andrew Bogut…(+0.0)
7. Charlie Bell…(-0.5)
8. Luc Moute…(-3.0)
9. Brandon Jennings…(-5.0)
10. Carlos Delfino…(-7.0)

The Song Remains the Same

If you tote the numbers up, you notice you get (+0.0).  It was anybody’s game, but only because of Salmons superhuman effort. 

Ilyasova also continues to turn in good performances, and Luke Ridnour had a nice performance himself.

Last night Brandon Jennings superb defense could not save his dreadful offense.  He allowed only 1.5 Win Score points to the supposedly excellent, but actually vastly overrated, Charlotte point guard duo of Raymond Felton and DJ Augustin.  That should have set him up for a positive night.  No way.  Jennings himself turned in a negative Win Score of (-3.5)  to finish with a negative contribution.

Bogut still has not gotten back to his brilliant play in January and February.  The Bucks need him there in the playoffs.  Again, he wasn’t bad, but he was average, and the Bucks need better than average.

And Tyson Chandler, who finally looks like the old Tyson Chandler, ate Bogut up in the overtime period to provide the decisive difference.

Bogut shouldn’t play this summer for Australia, and I’ll be upset if he does.  But that’s a post for another day.

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