How Skiles will likely deal with Bogut’s abscence

With the injury to C Andrew Bogut, the Bucks have a huge problem.

Kurt Thomas was a pretty good backup (when you consider the quality of backup centers) but he would be an inadequate starter at the level he’s played this season.

Old man Kurt Thomas now has to step his minutes up from 5.0% of center minutes to around 11.0%, if the Bucks are lucky and his 38 year old legs hold up.  Plus, he somehow has to conjure up visions of his days with the Spurs, when he was an extremely productive PF/C.  Perhaps he can do it.

But that’s only the beginning of the problem.

Whenever a starter goes down in basketball, the problem isn’t replacing him, its replacing the guy that replaced him.  If you look at the Bucks Win Chart, they have nothing but garbage,  absolute garbage, at third string center.

So Skiles must get creative.

There is no way any of the Bucks third string centers will play in any critical situations.  Skiles would rather suit up himself and play center than turn to such a dreadful option.  So here’s what I think he might do.

The Ilyasova Option and the collateral damage

What Skiles will likely do is use Ilyasova at backup center.  This is not ideal, as Ilyasova has proven an excellent power forward but a weak center.  He’s surprisingly good at covering the Association’s new breed of “step out” power forwards, but he does not defend  the post well. (Look at the Counterpart Numbers on 82games.  Ilyasova is holding PFs to an admirable eFG of 48%.  He is allowing centers to shoot nearly 70%.  I’ve never even heard of another example of defense that poor.  Clearly, by the iFG numbers, centers are taking him inside and abusing him.)

The move will also have a domino effect that will further weaken the lineup.  Here is what I anticipate the Coach will do.

Delfino becomes Nocioni, then comes Stackhouse

To account for the Ilyasova move,  he will switch SF Carlos Delfino into a sort of SF/PF role similar to the role Andres Nocioni played for him with the Chicago Bulls.  Then he will turn to veteran swingman Jerry Stackhouse  to mop the minutes at SF that Delfino will no longer be able to fill.

I don’t know how Delfino will do at power forwerd, and Stackhouse has been up and down at small forward.  This is not a move that creates strength, but its all Skiles can do.

The  Least of the Evils

Finally, to spell Thomas and Ilya for short periods, its either Gadzuric or Primo Brezec, and at least Gadzuric once  was a very productive NBA player.  Brezec has never been anything but horrible.  He is one of  the worst players in NBA history (in a recent game he boxed a guy out backwards, like he was trying to dance with him.  His man got the rebound because  Brezec’s bizarre  tactic left him unable to grab it himself.  The play was indicative of Brezec’s basketball sense… he has none).

So by default it has to be  Gadzuric.

What I would I think Skiles should say to Gadzuric is this:

“Dan, don’t shoot.  We don’t need scoring from you, and you can’t provide it anyway.  I’ll have you neutered if you attempt anything other than a dunk. Get it?  Your job is to rebound.  Rebound like you did in 2004, do not shoot.”

Fat chance.

Addendum:  I have  to do a full post about this.  But here’s Gadzuric’s problem.  In his one great season, Gadzuric outshot his opponent because he  dunked almost everything.  Now he  shoots jumpers.  NO!  If I were Skiles I would have him beaten with soap like Gomer Pyle in Full Metal Jacket if he  ever takes anything other than a dunk.  Also, in his one great season he rebounded like a madman, outrebounding his counterparts by an astounding +5.8 per 48.  After that season he forgot how to rebound.

13 Responses to “How Skiles will likely deal with Bogut’s abscence”

  1. Bosman Says:

    Szitaka Bast.

  2. Luke Says:

    Jackson? Can he play center or at least fill in at PF? I would rather have him getting minutes as a third “center” than gadz. I think ought to see what he can do, it’ll give us a chance to rest some of our guys and reduce their chance of injury, don’t want to risk ilyasova or moute going down as well, and if he’s terrible,we’ll know for next year.

  3. TC from Racine Says:

    great…more Primoz/Danny G. I was hoping this would’ve been in the “only a flesh wound” category a la Delfino, but figured the news was gonna be as bad as it looked. in short, this team has gone from possibly advancing to the second round to probably being lucky to win more than one game.
    yeah, the Bucks need to look into getting a backup C who’s younger than KT but more competent than Gadz and Primoz. If I were Hammond, I’d look into asking Memphis about Haddadi (cus I’m not sure I’d want Thabeet), problem is I’m not sure we have anybody they’d want that we’d actually want to part with.

    • Colin Says:

      I like Haddadi too, but I’m not sure how we could work out a trade, unless its just for draft picks. We *might* be just a bit under the cap, so we’d be able to take on a small-ish salary.

      One player that intrigues me is Greg Stiemsma from the D-League. He’s averaging over 6 blocks per 48 minutes and is a decent rebounder, but needs to work on positioning a little bit and could stand to be more agressive (strange to say that about such a good shot blocker, I know). On offense, he definitely plays within himself, unlike Gadz – he’ll typically either dunk or pass.

    • tywill33 Says:

      One dude gets his head stepped on, the other injures himself on a dunk shot. Unbelievable!!

  4. Palamida Says:

    I’m assuming u mean for next season, since the deadline has passed…
    Either way because the market is so skewed, despite the huge need that is having a productive backup center, you can get plenty of those on the cheap, if u only know where to look.
    Just today for example, Toronto picked up Joey Dorsey from the wire: talk about an upgrade over Gazduric and Brezec…
    The main thing IMO is that the Bucks (much like any other franchise) don’t realize the value of a backup center and\or believe they’re backups are decent. I mean sure, they’re stuck with GADZ’s contract for a while now, but they could have easily signed a productive player to a minimum contract while placing the Dutchman firmly on the bench where he belongs. They didn’t. For whatever reason they they think Gadz\Brezec\Ersan is good enough at Backup, and since Backup player take the main stage when starters get hurt, I imagine they will do nothing. Since it’s still the playoffs and all, they might pick up a D-leaguer (probably a random guy that’s free and willing) to be a 3rd string C,
    Assuming the Bucks will drop to 7th or 8th (that drop starts 2morow at Chicago) Life just got a lot easier for the Cavs or Magic.
    With the lakers recent woes (and unimpressive season) Both eastern powerhouses would probably have HC adv. over them in the Finals.
    I Expect the winner of that Eastern Conf. Final would be the world champion.
    Sucks to be the Bucks right now.

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