What a Reverse Boxscore would look like

I’ll talk about the great Philly win in my next post, but first you have to indulge me.  But if you do, I think you’ll find this post interesting.

You know how I’ve been babbling on about the need for “Reverse Boxscores”?  I did one — manually — for the Milwaukee Bucks in their game against the Chicago Bulls.

Click Here and you can see it.

Its pretty fascinating, I think.   By the way the last three columns are all Win Score.  The first is the combined Opponent Win Score, the second is the player’s own Win Score (obviously taken from the traditional box score) and the third is the “Raw Marginal Win Score”.

You can see that Brandon Jennings, had an AWFUL game against Derrick Rose.  He let Rose do whatever he wanted, as the 9 assists points out.  And Rose wasn’t playing all that well, because Ridnour held him in check when he was asked to cover him.  Jennings played poorly against Philadelphia tonight as well.  Jennings must really pick it up here if the Bucks are going to advance.

Its pretty obvious who won the game.  John Salmons, with his offense and his remarkable defense.  If that were Charlie Bell out there instead of Salmons, the Bucks lose easily.

The Reverse Boxscore also points up the problem at center.  Kurt Thomas played well himself, but he and Gadzuric are very poor at keeping the opposition centers off the boards.  Bogut was good at this.  The Win Score given up by Gadz and KT combined was awful, but it was in line with what they have been doing all season.  That’s going to be a big problem.

But the power forwards are playing very well.  Tonight against Philly they kept the Bucks competitive on the boards, and they both did a nice job against Chicago.

At small forward, Delfino was okay, he just came up against a rare player in Deng.  You can see that a lot of Stackhouse’s problems are self administered.  And when he isn’t playing defense he’s in big trouble.

Well, that’s all I have.  I just wanted to do a demonstration of what I’m talking about.

As I mentioned, its not completely “fair” in the sense that the players have no control over whether an opponent makes their free throws or gets a block or steal (though they have some control over how much “wandering” the opposition feels comfortable doing on defense).

But by and large the Reverse Boxscore does tell you something about the player’s contribution.  And it shows you kind of what I mean when I say basketball should be looked at as a battle of comparative production rather than strictly as “offense vs. defense”.  That’s too narrow a scope.

Advertisements

4 Responses to “What a Reverse Boxscore would look like”

  1. Ryan Says:

    As interesting as your numbers, marginal win score, personal win-loss records, and different ideas have been along the way, this might be the biggest yet even though it’s not as comprehensive and has similar shortcomings as regular box scores. Because it’s the most straight-forward, and adds another layer to the same things we’ve been looking at since we were little. I can feel my brain trying to flip as I look over it and compare it to the regular box score, nice work.

    Were you able to keep track of all the switches and numbers in one viewing or did this take a pretty fat chunk of time?

  2. robbieomalley Says:

    Hey Ty, as the biggest Bucks fan that I read regularly I would really like to know what you think of the blog I wrote about Brandon Jennings and how he struggles to make baskets.

    http://robbieomalley.wordpress.com/2010/04/09/if-brandon-jennings-could-shoot-like-stephen-curry/

    I’m not as statistically knowledgeable as you or DBerri are. I used mostly intuition to write this entry. I could have gotten some of the numbers wrong because my sources aren’t great but I think the general idea stands.

    You can skip 4th sentence, the first three just deal with how scoring efficiency isn’t considered enough.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: