Kobe’s so predictable

Kobe Bryant is not the perennial MVP his fans believe he is.  But he is an excellent player and an unbelievably reliable and consistent player. 

Before the season I took Kobe’s 3 season Marginal Win Score average along with his 3 season minutes played average and used each to estimate how many wins and losses I thought he would produce for the Los Angeles Lakers.  Here’s my prediction from Opening Day 2009-10 (along with the rest of the Lakers and the Spurs).

Back in October I estimated Kobe Bryant would account for 11.7 of the Lakers outcomes, and that of those, 11.4 would be wins and 0.3 losses.

I just calculated Kobe’s season numbers. 

Kobe accounted for 11.7 of the Lakers outcomes, with 11.1 of those outcomes being wins and 0.6 being losses.  I don’t think I’ve ever made such an accurate prediction in my life.

But it really had nothing to do with me.  It had to do with Kobe.  For a player who has played so many seasons, he is remarkably durable and consistent.

Footnote:  I just realized something.  Kobe’s numbers were not based upon the three year average.  His numbers were based upon the career resume I did for the old MVN.com Bucks Diary.  He hit every one of his career marks.  I think Kobe’s results have something to say not only about his consistency but about the consistency and reliability of Marginal Win Score as well.

3 Responses to “Kobe’s so predictable”

  1. Blake Says:

    Someone I know (who is coincidentally obsessed with stats) will absolutely not accept Durant as a top 5 player; saying he still needs a lot of work on passing, defense, and every other area of his game. Yet he is listed ahead of LeBron on your MVP list. What makes him so high, is he already a top 5 player?

    • tywill33 Says:

      This season has been his great leap forward. Last season he was on par basically with what Bogut was this season. Then boom.

      I notice he’s really used the free throw line to huge advantage this season. Wow, I just looked at that.

      His scoring efficiency is just tremendous.

  2. palamida Says:

    Hey Blake.
    Your friend is wrong – plain and simple.
    This season Durant made the jump into the NBA’s true Elite and he’s there to stay. Passing and Defense?
    Passing surely isn’t one of his greatest qualities but as a matter of fact he dished 3.5 ASTs per 48 mins which is just about the exact average for a SF (that would be 3.6). These numbers are from his time deployed as a SF which is virtually all of his PT. (he saw some scarce mins at both PF and SG).

    Let’s forget about MWS for a sec ; What makes Durant so great is that apart from To’s (He turns the ball over 4 times per 48, the avg for his position is 2.8) he’s just lights out:
    First and foremost his main weapon is efficient scoring in large volumes. He has a TS% of about 60.5 and he maintained that high % even though (or perhaps because?) he’s the league’s leading scorer per game.
    He’s above average in regards to Rebounds, Steals, Blocks and Personal Fouls all of which do a lot more than make up for his High To rate in terms of Net possessions.
    simply an all-around beast.
    I wouldn’t pick on his passing since as I said – it’s on Par with the Position and secondly – that wouldn’t be picking, it’ll be nitpicking, really.
    Defense, Defense, Defense… How do we measure it?
    Pick whatever method u like – Durant Shines:
    +/-? sure thing, Counterpart PER? Book it. I personally Prefer (at least in essence and theory) Ty’s MWS 🙂
    I haven’t done the numbers myself (and Ty has yet to post them) but here’s a little taste: Durant Holds his opponents to a ho-hum % from the Field.
    He gets to the line about 2.5-3 times more often (and converts!).
    He outrebounds his SF counterparts 1.5 to 1.
    He outblocks them.
    They commit twice the PF than him. The Cherry on top?
    His Sf counterparts only dish out 2.9 ASTs per 48 (as prev said, that’s BELOW avg). That’s some serious marginal contribution.
    How does he accomplish all that? I have no idea; For starters his incredibly long, that would be basically NBA Center long. To the naked eye he certainly doesn’t seem like a Grade A personal defender but neither does Nowitzki and for years now his counterparts have struggled. I guess it’s hard playing Hard on Both ends all the time. Whatever the cause may be, You get the picture: If u outplay your opposition so blatantly throughout an entire NBA season – you’re the real deal.
    P.S as it seems, Beasley 5M contract is basically an expiring contract dangled by the Heat. At this point (especially after his recent playoff showings) it appears the Heat are everything but attached and\or invested in the guy.
    But wait a minute… didn’t we hear that story before?
    It’s not long ago that Durant was Deployed As a SG playing for the League’s worst Thunder. An uber productive college player who everyone (at the stats community at least, ROY for the national media, remember?) sat and scratched their heads. Different deployment and further growth allowed Durant to unleash his true Superstar potential all the way to the Youngest ever League’s scoring titlist. Beasley lest we forget was also incredibly productive as a college freshman. To my knowledge there wasn’t ever a Major college player this productive who barely met the avg mark in the NBA.
    Sure Beasley seems like a bit of a headcase and well… let’s just say he seems to be less interested in hard work than say… Durant, but still…
    If u wanna take a Flyer on someone He’s gotta be your man.
    My question is this: can any1 think of a reason for Beasley’s struggles?
    Where is he hurting himself and his team, how should he be deployed?
    Or do you truly believe that he’s a “bust” meaning he never can be what “we” thought he was?
    Wanted to open that topic for discussion as the struggle of MR. Beasley truly intrigue me :p

    P.S.S 42-25… Bucks looking good out there.

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