When determining who was most responsible for a particular win, I like to use what I used to call Win Probability Added. To avoid confusion I will refer to it as Win Likelihood Added.
WLA merely expresses the additional likelihood that the team would win as a result of a player’s marginal statistical production. WLA assumes that a player who matches the statistical production of his counterpart opponents will make it no more or less likely that the team wins (50/50). Any surplus of positive stats adds to the likelihood, any deficit takes away from the same.
With that, here is how I rank the Milwaukee Bucks in descending order, from most responsible for the win to least. The first parenthetical number is the player’s Marginal Win Score per 48 minutes, the second is the player’s Win Contribution Index, the third is the player’s WLA.
Notice that the Bucks received outstanding contributions from the center position, and of course John Salmons played huge.
Leaving Salmons monster game aside for a moment, I am particularly impressed with the play the team received from Dan Gadzuric and Kurt Thomas. In about 42 minutes of action last night, the pair grabbed 23 rebounds and allowed their counterparts to grab a combined total of 5. Superior work.