I usually do “Win Contribution” calculations following an NBA Finals game. But I dropped the ball on Game 3 and it looks like I will have to drop the ball again on Game 4. I’m super busy.
But this morning watching SportsCenter the praise was always going toward the Big Baby. Big Baby is not a Marginal Win Score hero (check the Celtics Win Chart extracted from my NBA Win Chart Page) but he has been recording nice MWS48s this offseason. Still, I wanted to check to see if the praise was warranted.
Indeed it was, and how. In only 22.5 minutes of action, the Big Baby recorded an MWS48 of +11.07, completely dominating the Lakers frontline. That translates into a Win Contribution of +1.038. That’s huge.
To put that WC into perspective, if one assumes that a player who plays his counterparts to a standoff makes the likelihood of his team winning 50/50, then by outplaying his counterparts to the extent that he did last night, the Big Baby made it 17.9% more likely that the Celtics would triumph. In only 22.5 minutes of action!!
Monster, monster night for the Big Baby. Without him, the Celtics are Baby Jessica, trapped at the bottom of a 3-1 well, screaming for their mommies. With him they still have a decent (though remote) look at an 18th Championship banner.
On the flip side, what’s going on with Lamar Odom? Another pretty lame performance for a guy who annually makes my 20 Most Valuable list, and a guy who provided the most value to the Lakers in 2008.