Guessing at some win producers in the 2010 NBA Draft

I hate the NBA Draft.  You know going in that only like 3 guys maximum will have a significant positive impact for their teams (if that), a bunch more maybe will be average, the rest will be out of the Association in three years.  It aint like it used to be.

The thing I try to do is identify those with at least the possibility of being above average win producers.  In other words, players who have shown in the past that they can score efficiently, create possessions, pass, and avoid fouls.  That most certainly does not mean players with “wicked athleticism” “ridiculous quickness” “mad ups” or whatever other fucking ludicrous trait people look for in basketball players these days.

With that in mind, here is my list of possible high win producers in this year’s NBA Draft:

1. DeMarcus Cousins (5.0)

Method 1:  .763%; Method 2: .605%

Why are teams not clamoring for this player?  He’s got length and strength.  He rebounds, he shoots with high efficiency.  It appears he defends.  He is, at worst, Andrew Bynum.  Haven’t teams been watching the NBA Finals?  When Bynum started limping, the series tilted toward Boston.  Cousins may or may not be an elite win producer, but he almost certainly will be a high win producer.  The Timberwolves are DESPERATE for a player of his size and skill, and reportedly they will pass on him.  I don’t get it. 

2.  Evan Turner  (2.4)

Method 1: .627%; Method 2: .705%

There are things I don’t like about this player.  He seems turnover prone.  Plus, he was substantially less productive in his earlier seasons.  And he’s skinny.  With all that, I think he’s going to be a well above average win producer.  The Sixers lucked out by falling to second and getting him instead of Wall. 

3. Gordon Heyward  (2.8)

Method 1: .600%; Method 2: .584%

I’m sold.  Ot, at least, I can’t punch a hole in his resume.  Every method projects above .500% win production.  He comes ouf of a defensive minded program, he’s a good rebounder for a wing player, and his high free throw average indicates he’s a natural shooter.  Plus he’s got decent size.  The thing I particularly like is that he was extremely productive as a freshman.  Dean Oliver has cited freshman production as the surest mark of a thoroughbred.  At first I thought “Morrison” when I saw him, but the analogy doesn’t hold.  He’s closer to Dunleavy.  If he’s there at 15, the Bucks caught a monster break.

4. Ed Davis (4.8)

Method 1: .516%; Method 2: .583%

Great length (9’0” standing reach).  Decent size (227 lbs).  Excellent production both seasons he was in college.  Davis is probably going to be like another Davis, Dale Davis.  Won’t be spectacular by any means, but should be a decent win producer for whomever selects him.

5. Cole Aldrich (5.0)

Method 1: .665%; Method 2: .595%

Looks like another Greg Ostertag, and don’t laugh when you read that.  Greg Ostertag was a tremendously productive player for the Utah Jazz during the 1990s.  Any team would be lucky to get that kind of production.  It looks like Aldrich might be able to deliver it.

6. Wesley Johnson (2.7)

Method 1: .483%; Method 2: .594%

This guy scares me shitless.  Tremendous final season, offensively.  But what happened at Iowa State?  Why the mediocre numbers there?  Did he improve after the transfer, or are his numbers bolstered by the Syracuse offense.  Also, I’m leery about his defense.  Syracuse plays none, and Syracuse alum seem to play little, as Jonny Flynn demonstrated in Minnesota.  Still, everything points to him being at least a decent win producer.

7. Luke Babbitt (3.4)

Method 1: .486%; Method 2: .576%

The Rain Man (“Charlie Babbitt… Charlie Babbitt”).  Guys out of Nevada are notoriously bad defenders, but still, his productive numbers look pretty good.  I think he’ll be decent.

I’ll have some more evaluations tomorrow.

8 Responses to “Guessing at some win producers in the 2010 NBA Draft”

  1. brgulker Says:

    Recent reports from Draft Express have Coldrich dropping as low as 14!!!

    I’m stupified. Maybe his pre-draft workouts have been that bad? Or maybe GMs are just consistently undervaluing guys like Ostertag.

  2. Abe Jaroszewski Says:

    One or both of your methods somehow adjusts for SOS correct? I recall you doing that with Curry last season. I think that something similar for Hayward would be worthwhile.

  3. palamida Says:

    On the top 5 front, it looks surprisingly straightforward:
    1. The Wizards takes Wall (ugh).
    2. The Sixers take Turner.
    3. The Nets take Favors. (don’t ask me why :p)
    4. The T-wolves take Wes Johnson. it was reported
    that Cousins had a great workout for the Kings and that he will not work out for the T-Wolves since “they’re taking Johnson 100%:. Sounds like a man who prefers California to minny :p
    5.) The Kings takes Cousins.
    So weird….mad value here. Not only do they get the best player, they even save a couple of millions in guaranteed $…
    If they finally demote Hawes to a backup role and anticipating at least some improvement from their rookies (Evans, Casspi and Brockman), coupled with kicking the likes of Donte green from the rotation all together and a full healthy season by Landry and Garcia – the Kings are going to experience a very sudden turnaround :p
    I’ll dabble at guesstimating just how big of a turnaround when I get the chance, but it’s probably good enough for a playoff berth.

  4. palamida Says:

    And btw Ty, I’m gonna keep harping till you give him some love :p
    Project Hassan Whiteside, not only do I think he, along with Cousins are the two most underrated prospects in this upcoming draft – unlike Cousins the Bucks actually may have a shot at nabbing Whiteside.

  5. Blake Says:

    I really think we’re going to take Hayward at #15, he’s a guy I like but I think Bucks fans might be scared about him at first. I’ve heard Mike Miller as a comparison to him and looking at your win chart for the Wizards that wouldn’t displease me at all.

  6. palamida Says:

    Ty, can u elaborate a little about the two methods?
    I’m puzzled at what makes Hayward grade out so highly.
    Honestly I probably grade him as perhaps the 10th best prospect in this draft, maybe not even that.

    • tywill33 Says:

      Here’s what I did. And bear in mind, these are just guesstimates.

      The first method takes their collegiate performance, not only offensively, but defensively as well. I regressed those numbers and came up with a formula that works okay. That’s method one.

      Method two, I only consider their final season personal production. On average, a player’s college production will decrease about 63% in the professional ranks. So I take that number as a starting point.

      Then I try to project the guys likely positional mix, based on what I have observed working with numbers.

      Then I look at the guy’s size and his defensive background to try to guess at how effective he might be suppressing his counterparts. I generally try to look for a physical doppelganger as well to give me an idea.

      Then finally I look at how consistent that player’s production was over the course of his college career. I’ve found that the shakiest pro prospects are those that suddenly come on strong with unusually high numbers in their final seasons (of course this is of no value when it comes to freshman).

      Finally I look at their productive strengths and see how well those particular strengths correlate into pro strengths, using Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics research.

      On every single level, Haywood grades out well. He may not be as productive as I project, but there is no reason to predict that he will not be, if you get my meaning.

  7. palamida Says:

    Ty, thanks for that.
    I’m stating the obvious here but method B does not “care” how old the player is.
    As we all know – that’s a huge factor.
    We need to compare Freshmen with other freshman, sophs with sophs, etc.

    As Abe noted, In Butler’s case there needs to be some SoS adjustment.
    I know you got “burned” with Curry last season, but Curry is an exception.
    He did play well in the tourney, but I’m still having trouble picturing him as anything better than average. Considering the relative abundance of talent at the wing positions, I wouldn’t even consider using a lottery pick on him, but that’s just one man’s opinion.
    I do get your meaning, but I think there are a few reasons to predict such a prediction: Most notably, SoS, His unique role at Butler (lack of precedence is always a problem for any prediction model) and to a lesser extent his low assists total coupled with his To rate.
    He is a soph so i’m not saying it’s a stop sign, but in my mind – it’s a red flag.
    Not many elite wing prospects produce those type of numbers.

    On the bright side not many rebound as well as he did and I do think that he does have potential in terms of scoring. Like you said, his FT% is pretty high, and he nailed 3’s at a much higher clip in his freshman season.
    This is a pretty shallow draft, and if a team has a glaring need at the position he’s certainly not a bad pick, but not devoid of question marks – that’s what I’m trying to say.
    Size, Marginal production… maybe there is a real NBA player there, but it is a risky pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’d be a bust, and I won’t be surprised if he lives up to (your model’s) expectations, but If I had to pull the trigger on selecting him say… 10th-12th, my finger would be a little shaky :p

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: