Is John Wall a real point guard?

I tested John Wall’s college numbers against some known “true” point guards and some known “shooting” point guards to see which he was.  It appears he lands in between.

The only measure I applied was collegiate “scoring possessions” used per 40 minutes and collegiate “assists per scoring possession used” per 40 minutes.

The two “true” point guards I used were Jason Kidd and Chris Paul.  The two “shooting” points I used were Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury.

Here were the numbers:

Jason Kidd….(16.0 scorpos/40)…(62.5% ass/scorposs)
Chris Paul….(14.6 scorpos/40)…(51.2% ass/scorposs)
John Wall….(17.4 scorposs/40)…(41.4% ass/scorposs)
Stephon Marbury….(17.7 scorposs/40)…(27.0% ass/scorposs)
Allen Iverson….(26.6 scorposs/40)…(21.4% ass/scorposs)

So as you can see, Wall fits about in the middle.  He used about as many scoring possessions as Marbury, but handed out more assists per scorposs used than Marbury did, although he handed out many fewer assists than either Paul or Kidd. 

But he certainly is no Iverson.  Iverson was never truly a point guard.  He was a shooting guard playing the point.  Those types will kill you, as Iverson proved throughout his career.

Wall’s overall college win production numbers also fall in between Kidd/Paul and Marbury/Iverson, but closer to the latter.  And I expect he will land somewhere near the latter two when it comes to rookie win production.

In his rookie season, Iverson produced 3.8 wins and 8.8 losses for a terrible Philadelphia team (my model predicted he would produce 4.0 rookie wins in the same number of minutes played).  Marbury, on the other hand, produced 4.0 wins and 5.6 losses for an improving Minnesota team (my model predicted he would produce 3.7 rookie wins in the same number of minutes played). 

Expect to see Wall’s rookie win numbers somewhere near Marbury, but slightly closer to the .500% mark.  If he plays as many minutes as Marbury, he probably produces about 4.3 wins and 5.3 losses, about a .448% winning percentage.


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