Sacramento Kings improved by +6.5 wins yesterday

How would you like to add 6.5 wins to your slate in one day?  That’s my conservative projection of the number of wins the Kings acquired by trading the rapidly aging and declining Andres Nocioni and the never-will-be-in-a-million-years center Spencer Hawes.

I will give the full numbers in my next post.  But here’s what I did.  I broke down the Marginal Win Scores for the three over the last 3 seasons by component parts (Scoring, Possessions, Helpfuls).  Based upon the variances within each, I estimated the probable Marginal Win Score next season for the players (if one category was out-of-whack I adjusted it back to the norm). 

Then I projected each player’s “Game Responsibilities” based on their age and the number of minutes they played in the last two seasons.

Here are the wins and losses I project for each player:

1. Dalembert….7.6 wins and 1.7 losses (MWS48 of +1.86)

2. Hawes…1.3 wins and 7.3 losses (MWS48 of -2.10)

3. Nocioni…0.9 wins and 5.2 losses (MWS48 of -2.11)

So it looks like a huge win for the Kings.  Oh, how did I get to the +6.5 win improvement?  I added the number of Game Responsibilities taken up by Nocioni and Hawes last season.  I then assumed Dalembert would take up his projected 9.3 games (that’s 2252 minutes of play) and the other 4.7 games would be taken by a replacement level player with a winning percentage of .341% (a 28-54 team player).   That gets you to +6.5.

Furthermore, I looked at the “Ceilings” and “Floors” for each of the players based on the assumption that in one single year they would either put together their best or worst performances in each of the three major categories.

Based on that, Dalembert’s MWS48 ceiling is (+2.93) and his floor is (+0.82).  His midground, then, is right above where I project him for next season (+1.87)  So any way you cut it, its a safe bet he will be a huge improvement over Hawes.

Now look at what the Sixers got.  Hawes MWS48 ceiling is (-1.24) and his floor is (-3.36).  That means, even if he puts up the very best numbers he’s shown he can put up in all three major areas of basketball production, he will still suck.  His midground, by the way, is (-2.30), which is just below where I projected him above (-2.10).

Meanwhile, Nocioni’s ceiling is (-0.01), which wouldn’t be horrible, but its based mainly on numbers he hasn’t seen in three seasons.  And he’s an aging declining player.  What I’m saying is there’s no way in hell he hits his ceiling.

His floor on the other hand is worse than Hawes (-3.54).  I generously project Nocioni at (-2.11) next season, but the odds are in the other direction.

Basically, in my opinion, the Sixers traded away the chance at having a very good team next season with the announced addition of Evan Turner of Ohio State, for absolutely no upside.

I don’t get the NBA some time.  But a great move for the Kings.  They add one more piece and they’re sailing.

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One Response to “Sacramento Kings improved by +6.5 wins yesterday”

  1. palamida Says:

    Wow, great work.
    I wanted to run some numbers myself but didn’t get a chance.
    Add Cousins to that mix, and an the expected improvement of the Kings Rookies
    and they are going to have a team that will surprise a lot of people.
    Not us – off course :p

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