BasketballProspectus takes dim view on Maggette trade

BasketballProspectus has a post up that sees moderate gains for the Bucks from the Corey Maggette trade. 

Pay no attention to their win numbers.  Or you can if you want, but I don’t like the metric they use.  In my opinion it wildly overvalues scoring at the expense of everything else, particularly possession creation, and it is filled with arbitrary assumptions about usage and other things that are not supported by anything.  (Their SCHOENE system predicted the Bucks would win 28 games… and check out how many wins they had the FG of 37% Jennings producing?!). 

Actually that sounds too critical.  They do good conscientious work and they take a sharp analytical approach to the sport that I love.  I just don’t like their win metric at all (on the other hand, I love their defensive metric.  Its called “dmult“.  Its similar to one I wanted to try, but I can barely spill out the shit I have now, so I abandoned the effort, but its a great idea.  It basically grades defensive performance using the counterpart opponents average production as the measuring stick.)  

But the reason I point you to the post is because it does a good job of analyzing an issue that worries me.  Maggette’s age. 

I’ll let the post speak for itself.  But basically they see Maggette’s performance dropping in the next few seasons.

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