The Skinny on the new Bucks

Yesterday the Bucks acquired Corey Maggette from the Golden State Warriors, and Chris Douglas Roberts from the New Jersey Nets.  Maggette comes at a pretty heavy price tag, and he’s getting older, but he should be productive.  I really don’t know what to make of Douglas-Roberts.  He was a productive player in college, he was pretty decent as a rookie, and he was just atrocious in his second pro season.  Last season he did nothing well, unless you were a Nets opponent.

Corey Maggette

First, Maggette. Maggette’s win numbers have been down the last two season, but that has to do with how productive his opponents have been, not how unproductive he has been.  He’s always pretty productive.  I just think Don Nelson’s propensity to go small (he had the 6’6” Maggette playing some center each of the past two seasons)  doesn’t put his players in the best situation to succeed.  I think Skiles will be smarter when it comes to deployment, in fact I know he will be.  Therefore I expect Maggette to produce above average win numbers.

Before I break him down, a comment.  I’m not against Maggette, I like him, but I’m curious why the Bucks would target him.  He’s in his last few seasons, and he’s expensive.  Are the Bucks thinking they can make a run at it next season?  That would be a tall order.  They must have something in mind, but I’m not sure what.

Anyway, back to the analysis.  Maggette is a consistently outstanding scorer, posting positive net effective scoring numbers in each of the last four seasons.  In fact, very positive numbers.  He has not been a good net possession creator, however.  He’s not the best at steals or rebounds, and he’ll turn the ball over.  And since he doesn’t pass the ball much or block shots, his net “helpful” stats tend to be negative too.  He relies solely on scoring, but maybe that’s exactly what the Bucks need in their mix.

Here are his four year numbers in each of the three categories, starting with this season’s numbers and going backwards.  The first two numbers in each category are his two seasons in Golden State, the last two numbers in each category are his final two seasons with the Los Angeles Clippers.

Net Effective Scoring per 48:
(+3.95); (+0.97); (+2.14); (+2.94)
Net Possessions Created per 48:
(-3.99); (-1.03); (-1.03); (+0.22)
Net “Helpful” Stats per 48:
(-0.23); (-0.39); (+0.05); (+0.31)
Marginal Win Score per 48:
(-0.14); (-0.22); (+0.58); (+1.73)
Weighted 4 season MWS48 and corresponding Winning %:
+0.43 (.575%)
Weighted 3 season MWS48 and corresponding Winning %:
+0.01 (.504%)
3 season MWS48 “Ceiling”/”Floor”/”Midground”:
(+1.48)/(-1.70)/(-0.11)
3 season median MWS48:
(+0.18)
3 season MWS48 calculated using median from each category:
(-0.11)

Analysis

There’s two ways to look at Maggette.  One, he’s in decline.  Two, he was caught up in an atmosphere of non-defense in Golden State.  I hate making situational excuses like that, they always end up burning me.

I’m going to say that his scoring will be a net positive, because it has consistently been that. I’ll say (+2.50).

Now here’s a bit of a red flag (I just calculated this while I was writing this post).  Had Maggette played the “3.7” position for the Bucks last season, and that’s probably how they’ll deploy him, his Net Possession Stats would have been (-2.56).   He turns the ball over too much and doesn’t rebound enough to play power forward, but I’ll bet Skiles will use him there often (I’m completely contradicting myself as this post moves along).  I say that because of his use of Nocioni in Chicago, and Moute in Milwaukee.  That might mean slight trouble.

I’m going to predict Maggette is a .500% player.  If he does better it’ll be a pleasant surprise.  But again, he has the kind of production mix that fits the Bucks perfectly, so things might balance out.

Chris Douglas-Roberts

Coming out of college I liked Douglas Roberts.  And he was pretty decent as a rookie.  But he wasn’t good at anything last season. Here are his career numbers, last season first, first season last.

Net Effective Scoring:
(-1.97); (+0.06)
Net Possession Creation:
(-3.18); (-0.72)
Net Helpfuls:
(-1.47); (+0.29)
Marginal Win Score per 48:
(-3.31); (-0.18)
Weighted MWS48 and corresponding winning %:
(-2.41) (.093%)

Analysis

What the hell happened to him last season?  There’s no point in doing a “Ceiling” / “Floor” for this guy; His first season was his “Ceiling”, his second hopefully was his “Floor”.  He bottomed out in every category last season.

I don’t know what to make of him.  As I said, he’s erratic, and he’s young which makes him hard to predict.

But lets say he played the (2.2) position for the Bucks last season.  Then his career numbers would have given him a -1.12.  That’s where I’ll project him.

That’s not that great.  But its better than Charlie Bell, I guess, and I think he would be taking Bell’s role.  And at least there’s reason to hope he’ll improve, whereas there was never hope that Bell would.

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One Response to “The Skinny on the new Bucks”

  1. Blake Says:

    One thing I love about Maggette – he is great at getting to the line. That’s where the Bucks needed help, Hammond saw that and then addressed it with this trade. Good move by him.

    And on Chris Douglas-Roberts, could the fact that the Nets were downright horrible play a factor in why he had such a shitty season. I also heard he was having a little trouble with the whole organization, and got benched after a tweet he made about the team. But he seemed REALLY excited to be apart of the Bucks (he was literally posting in all caps and exclamation marks on how happy he was, that’s an oddity). I don’t think he was playing to his potential last season. Also, I think if anyone can turn CDR into a productive player it is Skiles and this coaching staff. He dropped 30 and 10 on the Bucks last season so we know that the offensive potential is there. If he can improve upon that it would be nice to see him turn into a great defensive player and get a good amount of minutes.

    And the draft is just a day away, and I’ve been hearing rumors about the Bucks taking PF Larry Sanders out of VCU. I really don’t see how we can take anyone else at this point. Skiles took him out for dinner after a ‘tremendous’ workout with the Bucks and then he canceled the rest of his workouts till the draft. So that’s something to think about, he seems like Skiles type of guy though, seems like a guy who loves to get into the paint and play tough defense. You can run your numbers on him if you want, because at this point it seems we’re only going to be going with a big man.

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