Last summer when I was on MVN.com, I did a series of posts on various players that I called the “Win Resumes”. Two of the players who factored in the series were featured prominently in today’s sports headlines — the Miami Heat’s newly minted dynamic duo of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. So I thought it was a good time to dust off each resume to see what the combination might be capable of producing.
The bottom line is I don’t know how much better, if any, Miami is after this summer’s moves, provided LeBron does not join the group. What I’m trying to say is I hope Miami fans are not measuring a spot for another Golden Ball just yet. There’s still a lot of roster augmentation they need to do first.
Dwyane Wade is clearly a player capable of superstar production, but they already had him. He should provide his usual “somewhere between Kobe and LeBron” win production, provided his breakneck style doesn’t get him hurt. When he’s hurt, as his numbers show, he’s ineffective. But he’s a pretty reliable double digit win producer.
Bosh, on the other hand, has never shown that he’s anything more than a really good player. He doesn’t produce mega wins like Dwight Howard or a healthy Kevin Garnett, or even an inspired Carlos Boozer. He has never even flirted with the magical 1.000% winning percentage that is the mark of an elite player. Bosh is just a very good win producer, but then again so was Udonis Haslem. They just produce in different ways.
And Bosh certainly doesn’t improve Miami’s defense to championship level. He didn’t play on a single above average defensive team. So there won’t be the kind of synergistic effect you got when Kevin Garnett joined the Boston Celtics.
At the moment, with the four men currently on the roster, the Heat can expect to receive about 30 wins, give or take, with 39 “player games” used. That leaves 43 player games to fill, and about 25 more wins they need to add if the Heat are to going to get to the magic “55 wins” that is the historic minimum you need if you expect to be a serious championship contender.
So simple math tells you the team still has to hire additional players who are above replacement level. They need talent capable of producing a cumulative winning percentage of .581%. But in order to sign Bosh they’ve now left themselves with an awfully tight budget with which to do so. (Or maybe not, I have absolutely no understanding of the NBA’s “Alice in Wonderland” collective bargaining regime).
So I don’t know if the Heat should be popping any champagne corks just yet. In fact, I don’t even think they are the most improved team among today’s movers. I think that would be the Chicago Bulls (provided Boozer doesn’t flake out). The Bulls are borderline championship material at this moment (and not because of Derrick Rose). And they are one nauseatingly self indulgent superstar away from having a monster, monster lineup.