Rookie Summer League Win Scores

Maybe the Bucks got a steal in Tiny Gallon.  Despite his awful turnover problem, he is one of only three rookies who are posting positive adjusted Win Score numbers so far this summer.

I only calculated the numbers for rookies and others whom I was interested in evaluating.  I adjusted each player’s WS to his projected position and then estimated how that number would translate to Marginal Win Score per 48.

A player I was high on in the NBA Draft previous to the last one, PG Ty Lawson, is absolutely dominating.  I do not even know what he’s doing playing in the summer.  I still think the Bucks would have been better off drafting him.  He was on the board when they selected Jennings.

Another player who is a man among boys is the third year player out of Memphis, C Joey Dorsey.  Because of his size he seems to get only minimal respect in the NBA, but he just dominates wherever he plays.

The best rookie so far has been Utah’s Gordon Hayward.  He was exceptional in the Orlando Summer League.  DeMarcus Cousins, the player I was highest on, has proven himself to be a tremendous rebounder, but his True Shooting Percentage has not been high, and he has a turnover problem.

The first number listed is the player’s raw Win Score per48.  The second is his WS48 adjusted for position.  The third is his estimated Marginal Win Score, taking into account that most rookies Opp Win Score is slightly below average.

1. Joey Dorsey…(26.45)…(+13.53)…(+6.45)
2. Ty Lawson…(15.99)…(+9.19)…(+3.24)
3. Gordon Hayward…(14.84)…(+6.55)…(+3.01)
4. Tiny Gallon…(13.42)…(+1.52)…(+0.41)
5. DeMarcus Cousins…(12.52)…(+0.21)…(+0.02)
6. Luke Harangody…(11.57)…(-0.23)…(-0.46)
7. Hasheem Thabeet…(10.90)…(-1.40)…(-0.51)
8. Patrick Patterson…(9.70)…(-1.00)…(-0.92)
9. Evan Turner…(4.55)…(-2.45)…(-1.17)
10. John Wall…(4.34)…(-2.46)…(-1.26)
11. Luke Babbitt…(4.21)…(-3.59)…(-1.43)
12. Damien James…(5.16)…(-4.84)…(-2.14)
13. Wesley Johnson…(2.18)…(-5.32)…(-2.66)
14. Larry Sanders…(4.12)…(-6.98)…(-3.69)
15. Derrick Favors…(4.35)…(-7.55)…(-3.74)
16. Hassan Whiteside…(4.96)…(-8.94)…(-4.12)

Anything below -1.00 MWS48 is bad news for a regular player, and the vast majority of the rookies are below that mark.  The NBA Draft is becoming harder and harder to predict, and less and less valuable it seems.

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6 Responses to “Rookie Summer League Win Scores”

  1. robbieomalley Says:

    Ty,

    While Orton may be very very very bad. He can’t hold a candle to the summer performances of Rick Kamla or Dennis Scott. I’ve heard “He’s got hops not hopes” about 28.9 times in the last two days.

    Also summer league is making me want pre season to start. Watching these games and looking over the numbers – they just don’t seem all that reliable in terms of predictions. An 8+ turnover game in the regular season would really stick out to me but its common occurance in the summer.

  2. Derek Smalls Says:

    In the case of Rick Kamla, I’d imagine he got to where he is becasue he knew someone on the inside! I could be wrong but he seems so horribly incompetent that I just can’t imgine he got his job on talent alone; he’s nearly impossible to listen to.

    My impression of Tiny is that he is a less focused Dejuan Blair. Same body type and physical attributes (though Tiny has a really nice stroke and can drain the 3) but Tiny seems to “wander” from time to time.

    Larry on the other hand really seems to have his head in the game on every play on both ends of the court. He’s raw, but I’m really impressed with how little basketball expereince he has and it seems he has a very, very high ceiling. The Bucks appear, so far anyway, to have selected two pretty decent bigs but with so little to go off of, we’ll all just have to play the waiting game to see how these two pan out over the next year.

  3. Summer League Analysis from Ty Willihnganz (the Courtside Analyst) « The Wages of Wins Journal Says:

    […] Courtside Analyst (a blog I have included in The Wages of Wins Network)–  has examined some of the numbers.  I have taken the liberty of re-posting his analysis below.  In looking at these numbers, keep […]

  4. coachbean Says:

    If you could please run the numbers for Garret Siler of NJN and Miami. He is shooting a ridiculous 70+% from the field, is rebounding well and has intriguing NBA size.

  5. coachbean Says:

    Also Jeremy Lin of Dallas would be interesting to analyze.

  6. Dan Says:

    I just watched a quick postgame interview with Larry Sanders after the win against Cleveland and I am impressed with the way he carried himself. The interviewer asked him to give himself a grade on his summer league performance and he laughed, asking if the first game counted. He said without the first game, B+, with the first game, C-. I like how he had no qualms admitting he stunk it up in that game and could see the light side of things.

    He also commented on how he was disappointed in his rebounding in the final game. Said he just never seemed to be in position for a board.

    It was just a few seconds of an interview, but I like how he does seem to be fully aware of how he is doing and what he needs to improve.

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