Chicago Bulls should win around 52 games

I just did a back of the napkin win calculation for the 2010 Chicago Bulls using each prospective Bulls player’s past Marginal Win Scores and his past playing time, along with his age and how he might fit into the Bulls rotation.

The Bulls, I think, should win around 52 games.  They’ve assembled a very productive lineup.  I like most of the moves they’ve made this offseason.

Several factors, though, make them tricky to predict.

The first is their roster overhaul and influx of new faces.  Players changing teams can be a little dicey.  The MWS correlation from season to season is a bit weaker.

Second is the possibility of diminishing marginal returns for Joakhim Noah because of  the presence of Carlos Boozer.  Will Boozer eat into Noah’s possession creation skills?  (I’m going to say no).  And what about Noah’s foot? (of course injuries render every prediction null and void)

Third, and most important, is their new coach.  Teams with new coaches are the most difficult teams to predict because you don’t know how the player’s productivity will fit in the new system.  Will some players blossom under the new regime, as Kevin Durant did last season under his relatively new coach?  How quickly will the team buy in to Thibodeau’s defensive schemes?  Will Derrick Rose become a more disciplined player?  Can Thibodeau mold him into another Rajon Rondo?  (For various reasons, Rose is the player likeliest to rise up, primarily because of age and its his third season.)

I think the Bulls will take well to the new defensive system, but probably gradually.  Thus, they could start slow and then come on strong.  If Thibodeau’s system begins to take root around March, the Bulls could really be tough.    With all that, here’s what I initially see for the Chicagoans:

1. Derrick Rose….(6.5__5.5)
2. Luol Deng….(6.9__3.0)
3. Joahkim Noah….(7.7__0.3)
4. James Johnson….(0.8__3.2)
5. Ronnie Brewer….(7.6__2.7)
6. Taj Gibson….(4.4__5.9)
7. Carlos Boozer….(11.3__0.5)
8. Kyle Korver….(4.3__3.4)
9. CJ Watson….(2.6__2.4)
10.-15. ??? (0.4__3.0)

_________________

Chicago Bulls Early Win Forecast=

52.5 wins and 29.5 losses

Advertisements

5 Responses to “Chicago Bulls should win around 52 games”

  1. Chicago Tim Says:

    There’s definitely a range of possibilities, depending on injuries, growth from young players, and coaching (including choices about who gets the most minutes). If they maintain perfect health, I do think they will win more than 52 games — but perfect health in the NBA is unlikely.

    I would rather see them healthy as they enter the playoffs than see them burn out during the year. I like the San Antonio method of capping the stars’ minutes during the season, even if it does mean losing a few games along the way.

    I think it would be intriguing to add Shaq to the team, but only if he would accept reduced minutes and reduced pay.

    • tywill33 Says:

      Very true. Injuries are always a caveat.

      My sense is, if anything, I may have shot low. Primarily because I believe the new coach’s defensive regime will produce more victories than my numbers reflect.

  2. A Jordan Myth and the Latest and Greatest from the Wages of Wins Network « The Wages of Wins Journal Says:

    […] Chicago Bulls should win around 52 games […]

  3. John Says:

    This is a pretty good assessment. I think the Bulls will win between 50 and 55 (if I had to guess, I’d say closer to 55) games and win the Central Division. It will be interesting to see if the projection changes when the Bulls fill out the rest of their roster (they’ve added Omer Asik and Kurt Thomas, two backup centers) and are looking at McGrady/Mason/House for the 12th roster spot. I’m guessing that whoever they add, it won’t change the projection much. Assuming everyone stays healthy, and they adapt well to the new system, I’m guessing they go 55-27, finishing third in the East behind Orlando and Miami (not necessarily in that order). But that’s just based on my gut feel, not statistics.

  4. Tom Mandel Says:

    This is a great example of how to use WP48. They are going to be very good, yes.

    Why would you think that one coach will produce more wins than another with this squad, however? (Outside, obviously, of a short list of guys who have in fact gotten performance deltas out of players) Especially a rookie coach who’s had a long career as an assistant.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: