2010 Miami Heat Projection: 63.3 wins

Using the same “they’ll find their own minutes and positions” system I used for the Milwaukee Bucks in the last post, I project the 2010 Miami Heat’s new “Dream Team South Beach” (a/k/a “the Legion of Doom”) will produce 63.3 wins in the 2009-10 season.

Here’s the methodogy.  I simply took the player names off the list of players in the Miami Heat column on “Hoopshype” (except that one unheard-of college player), averaged their minutes over the last three seasons, took their Win Score per 48 averages, got a total Team Win Score per minute, and then compared that with the Oppo Win Score per minute posted by Heat opponents last season.

The Heat Team Win Score I came up with was something above 53.00, an awesome average, which would be the best in the NBA last season (I didn’t bring my notes into the office, so I cannot give you the exact number).  The Oppo Win Score I used was. as mentioned, the one posted by the Heat last season, 37.00 something.   That’s a very, very good number.

I did not project an improvement on that number because (1) while Lebron is a good defender, he’s not substantially better at guarding 3’s than Q Richardson was, (2) Chris Bosh has been an average defender his whole career and the Heat got well above average defensive production from his position last season, and (3) Mike Miller is a fantastic offensive producer but below average on the defensive end.  Thus, I actually might be generous giving the Heat the 37.00 number I gave them.  I’m more worried in that direction.  But I’ll stick with that number.

With that caveat, the number I arrived at was a representative Marginal Win Score for the 2010 Miami Heat of +1.50, and a concomitant win production of 63.3 wins over the course of an average NBA team number of minutes.

Pretty good.  Not a whole lot better than the 2009 Cleveland Cavaliers, however. 

But what if the Heat played only average defense?  Then I’ve got them at 55 wins.  LeBron would be so pissed.  I can’t see it happening though.

4 Responses to “2010 Miami Heat Projection: 63.3 wins”

  1. palamida Says:

    Yes, but keep in mind that come playoff time we probably will see last season’s Boston’s allocation of mins, all over again…
    what I mean is, that in the playoffs, Wade and LBJ will probably play 37-39 mins per game and Bosh will probably hit 35-36.
    That doesn’t sound like much but when you’re talking about production in the LBJ levels, it’s actually quite a lot.
    Off course the real question is, can the Heat gain something from employing all three players that is more than the sum of their parts?.
    Quite a unique case study, it’ll be interesting.

  2. Joe Says:

    Bosh is no worse a defender than Beasley was. If the Heat got above-average defense from the PF spot last year, it was probably due to Haslem, who is returning as the backup this year, so I don’t see any drop-off happening there.

    Chalmers/Arroyo at point guard is also returning (with probably more minutes for Chalmers, the better defender of the two), Wade obviously, Haslem like I already said, plus Joel Anthony. The biggest change is going to be Big Z instead of J.O.

    Anyway, even if they go from top 5 defense last year to top 10 or top 12 this year, they’re going from 16-20 on offense to top 5.

  3. My Miami Heat prediction: 63.0 wins « Courtside Analyst Says:

    […] the midst of the “Summer of LeBron” I did a rough estimate of how many wins the Heat would produce using win production generalizations and a series of logical assumptions.  Using that method, I […]

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