Portland a new power in the West

No team, with the possible exception of Oklahoma City, has assembled a better young nucleus of productive talent than the Portland Trailblazers.  In doing so, it appears the Blazers have once again opened themselves up a championship window.  Whether they will fit themselves through that window this June has a lot to do with luck, health, and other issues.  But the window is clearly there.

My Win Estimates

Using the MWS48 win production numbers posted over the last three seasons by each player on the current Blazers roster, combined with an educated guess at each player’s alloted minutes, I produced an Estimated Win Chart for the 2010-11 Portland Trailblazers (see below).

My chart predicts the Trailblazers will win 56.0 games this season, which would be a six game improvement over last season.  I based my estimate on the aforementioned statistical estimates plus some assumptions which I outlined below.  I think the assumptions are conservative, so the Blazers total might be even higher than I am predicting.  As always, you the reader are the final judge.  But I think it is clear Portland will be a championship contending team in 2010-11.

Assumptions

I assumed the team would receive a diminished season from oft-injured center Greg Oden.  I base that on three things: (1) the past history of diminished production by big men in the season they returned from a serious leg injury; (2) the past history of diminished playing time for players returning from knee injuries; and (2) the fact that the team doesn’t necessarily need him at the moment (Camby and Pryzbilla) and probably will not want to risk another injury because that might end his career.   So I am assuming the team will limit his minutes, and that his production will be the lowest of his career.  That is a shame because he was off to a spectacular start last season.  He was putting up statistics that were reminiscent of Bill Russell.

I assumed Marcus Camby would regress back  to his mean.  Last season Camby’s production could be labeled “awesome”.  In my model I assumed his production would go back to his personal norm, which I would label “very good”.

I assumed Brandon Roy would have a relatively “off” season.  Roy is also coming off a knee injury, so I kept his numbers down near his personal 3 season low and trimmed his normal minutes from 2900 to 2656.

I assumed Nicolas Batum’s sophomore season was not a fluke. Nicolas Batum was outstanding last season.  I’m assuming that’s his new normal.

I assumed  Luke Babbitt would have a nice rookie season. I think Luke Babbitt should be a very productive professional player.  He has decent size, he is an excellent shooter, and he was fairly productive in college.

2010-11 Portland TrailBlazers Estimated Win Chart
Marcus Camby…8.2__(-0.2)
Brandon Roy…8.1__3.1
Lamarcus Alridge…6.3__4.7
Andre Miller…5.7__3.9
Rudy Fernandez…5.6__1.1
Nicolas Batum…5.2__1.0
Greg Oden…4.7__0.7
Joel Pryzbilla…3.3__0.9
Wes Matthews…2.7__2.1
Luke Babbitt…2.6__1.9
Jerryd Bayless…1.4__3.3
Dante Cunningham…1.1__1.5
Jeff Pendergraph…1.1__1.5
________________________
2010-11 Prediction 56.0__26.0
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2 Responses to “Portland a new power in the West”

  1. poker affiliate Says:

    Greg Oden could be the difference this season. If he can stay healthy, he can be a top 5 center and help the Blazers make a deep run this season.

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