Fleshing out the new Cavaliers

A couple of posts back I predicted the Cavaliers would win 42 games without LeBron James (as a commenter pointed out, LeBron was not their only key loss).  I promised I would flesh out the exact player win and loss estimates, and I do so below.

I’m a bit nervous about this particular forecast because it is way out of step with Arturo’s “roster wins” estimate.  He has the Cavaliers as a 30 win team, or thereabouts.  I’m guessing many people would feel inclined to lean toward Arturo’s view.

There are three vital player production components to my prediction.  Anderson Varejao, Jamario Moon, and Antawn Jamison all have to produce above average wins.  If either one of them falter, the Cavs will indeed be closer to a 30 win team.

But my predictions for the 3 are in line with their career production.  In fact, all of them are slightly below the production that each player has displayed in the recent past.  That said, I could see Mike Brown pulling minutes from one of the first two mentioned players on the grounds that neither player is a classic “scorer”, and there is the possibility that the steadily declining play of Antawn Jamison will fall off the cliff. (the worst case scenario is Brown trading minutes from Varejeo to the awful Ryan Hollins or from Jamario Moon to Joey Graham.  Either move would harm the Cavaliers, but both moves are foreseeable)

2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers Estimated Win Chart
1. Jamario Moon…7.6__0.8
2. Anderson Varejeo…7.4__1.7
3. Antawn Jamison…6.0__3.8
4. Anthony Parker…4.9__4.1
5. Mo Williams…4.6__5.3
6. JJ Hickson…3.4__4.5
7. Ramon Sessions…3.1__3.8
8. Daniel Gibson…3.1__2.9
9. Leon Powe…1.2__1.4
10. Joey Graham…1.1__4.1
11. Jawan Williams…0.1__1.1
12. Christian Evenga…0.1__1.5
13. Ryan Hollins…(-0.5)__4.3

5 Responses to “Fleshing out the new Cavaliers”

  1. Chicago Tim Says:

    Mike Brown has been replaced by Byron Scott.

  2. jbrett Says:

    Seems pretty reasonable. LeBron didn’t account for 60-some wins all by himself; if Moon can take a lot of those minutes at or near his normal production–and Scott wisely plays Varejao about 52 minutes a game–they should easily approach the .500 mark, right? Unless, I suppose, the new billboard says, “We are all hungover.”

  3. DKH Says:

    What scares me is that a lot of people think Jawad (check your spelling) Williams is about as good as Moon. There were a ton of minutes that went to Williams last season that could have gone to Moon. Moon averaged 7 minutes in the Boston series (50% shooting, totaled 6 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals, and no turnovers; why would they want him on the court more, huh?). (Jawad Williams didn’t steal any minutes in that series.)

  4. tywill33 Says:

    How many factual errors am I going to make in one week?

    Jawan Williams, Scottie King, Mike Brown

    I gotta be careful, its going to undermine my posts. But its a balancing act… I barely have time anymore to do the calculations, but I like doing them, so the writing has to suffer. its almost purely extemporaneous… thus mistakes. Sorry though.

  5. Wages of Wins Network 2011 Stat Smackdown: Eastern Conference « Nerd Numbers the Blog Says:

    […] wants the 8th seed and a chance to make Miami reenact Dallas’ debacle. Still as has been mentioned, life is not as dire in Cleveland as everyone […]

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