In the midst of the “Summer of LeBron” I did a rough estimate of how many wins the Heat would produce using win production generalizations and a series of logical assumptions. Using that method, I predicted the Heat would win 63.3 games.
Tonight I did a more precise estimate using each player’s actual win production statistics over the past three seasons combined with an estimate of the playing time each player will receive based largely upon each player’s past minutes, age, and physical condition.
Using this method I estimated the wins and losses each player would produce. The sum total of the individualized estimates produced nearly the same result I obtained using the rough method I used last summer. (the individualized method is the method I’ve been using throughout my “2010-11 NBA win estimate” posts — when I finish predictions for every team I will write a compilation “NBA Preview” that will link to every team and will be organized by conference and division.)
Below are the win production estimates for every player on the Miami Heat roster. As always, my system does not claim to be prescient, but it has proven fairly accurate. Of course, the final verdict is always left with the reader.
When reading the chart, the first number for each player is the projected wins he will produce. The number after the underscore is the losses I project he will produce. If there is a parenthesis around either number, that means the player is either so productive or so unproductive that he produces either negative losses (superstar) or negative wins (horrible).