Detroit Pistons should improve slightly

This off-season the Detroit Pistons acted like a frivolous blackjack player who insists on staying on 14.  The team finished last season 27-55 yet they return largely the same roster as last season.  Good luck selling that to the Motor City faithful.

Nevertheless, and to my surprise, I calculated them winning about 5 more games this season.  Looking at my list, the improvements I project come from Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Ben Gordon, and Tracy McGrady.

Jerebko and Daye are projected to improve based upon their production after the All-Star game last season.  Daye was especially improved, but Jerebko was impressive enough throughout the season that I gave him a similar bump to Daye’s.

I reluctantly projected a slight improvement from Ben Gordon.  Gordon is hard to figure.  In the three seasons of data I have, he was awful twice and average once.  But he was average during the season he was playing for a contract.  Did that motivate him to play better?  Is he truly the player he has been in the non-contract seasons?  Or is his erratic play merely the result of the natural inconsistency of jump shooters? I could not decide, so I split the difference and gave him a slight bump.

As for Tracy McGrady, I gave him the benefit of the doubt and decided his awful play with the Knicks was a result of playing in the Knicks system and that his play this season will return to somewhere slightly above average.  However, I have no faith in his knees so his minutes I limited.

As for others, I’m guessing Greg Monroe won’t be all that good, based on the fact that he wasn’t all that good in college.  I’m reluctantly projecting Tayshaun Prince will have an okay season, although the tires could fall off at any minute.  Ben Wallace will do some Ben Wallace work, but I think he could lose some minutes to Monroe.  The rest of the roster stinks.

Here are the numbers I project:

2010-11 Detroit Pistons Estimated Win Chart
________________________________
1. J. Jerebko…6.0__3.9
2. B. Wallace…3.7__2.3
3. T. Prince…3.4__3.9
4. R. Stuckey…3.3__6.2
5. T. McGrady…3.0__1.9
6. A. Daye…3.0__2.3
7. C. Villanueva…2.1__4.5
8. B. Gordon…2.1__6.2
9. G. Monroe…1.6__3.4
10. R. Hamilton…1.6__5.0
11. J. Maxiell…1.3__2.0
12. W. Bynum…1.2__4.6
13. C. Wilcox…0.1__1.1
14. D. Summers…0.0__2.1
________________________
Predicted Record: 32.3__49.7
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5 Responses to “Detroit Pistons should improve slightly”

  1. brgulker Says:

    Minute allocation will greatly impact win totals this year. If Kuester has the stones to go with the younger, more productive players like Daye and Jerebko over Rip, Gordon, and McGrady, I think we can threaten mid to upper 30s.

    Greg Monroe and Ben Wallace are the other two wildcards. Will age finally catch up with Ben? Will Monroe be the middling player he was in college, or will the tutelage of Ben Wallace propel him to new heights on defense and the boards? (or maybe that’s just wishful thinking).

    And for the record, Hollinger pegged us at 32 wins as well, which is a bit ironic 🙂

  2. Gabe Says:

    Thank you for doing this! Along with brgulker I’ve been banging my head against the wall over the prospect that the Pistons actually could have some semblance of an okay team going forward if they committed themselves to their youngest players. But it appears this wish is not meant to be.

    But in my mind’s eye, a line-up with Daye at SG and Jerebko at SF could maybe compensate for a PF with weak rebounding skills like Villanueva or Maxiell. Then if Stuckey was specifically ordered to stop shooting (yes Rodney, that includes hail mary lay-ups in heavy traffic), a line-up of Stuckey/Daye/Jerebko/Maxiell/Wallace might actually be somewhat decent.

    • tywill33 Says:

      I just blew $8.00 on Yahoo Sports NBA “preview”. Some of their predictions are ridiculous. They have the Cavaliers sinking to 12 wins. From a championship contender to the 1973 Phil 76ers. And they have the Pistons dropping eight games to 19 wins. I can accept this, but not without some explanation as to how virtually the same roster will lose 8 additional games. Age? Inconsistency? Bad Luck? They don’t tell. Which makes me believe they just pulled win totals out of the air.

  3. palamida Says:

    This has nothing to do with the Pistons but rather with the Warriors.
    No Don Nelson? check. New coach states that Dorell Wright will start at SF? check.
    How good is the starting 5 of: Curry, Ellis, Wright, Lee (at PF at last) and a healthy Biedrins? pretty damn good!
    Ty, do the Warriors next :p

  4. D Says:

    Just read on realgm that the NBA has expanded technical fouls to include “overt” player reactions to calls and excessive complaining. Just interested in your take in how that might affect the game and if you think it will be applied fairly to all players. I want to see how it’ll affect guys like Kobe, who like to complain when they don’t get calls. It looks like realgm got the article off of ESPN, if you can’t find it.

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