I always claim that Professor David Berri and I were the only ones who forecast the Bucks to be anywhere near the 40+ wins they ended with last season, but in fact Kevin Pelton’s SCHOENE system forecast the Bucks right in the same neighborhood (I think around 37 wins). In fact, a lot of the SCHOENE forecasts last season were right and wrong in a similar manner to my forecasts, which of course is neither a good nor a bad thing. But the system they use is interesting and well thought out. And thanks to Chicago Tim, we can kind of get a cheapskate peek at this season’s SCHOENE forecast by using the “Watchability” Graph Kevin Pelton posted on Fanhouse (though I will end up buying their book).
If you look at the index and ignore the “Boring/Interesting” function and focus on the “Good/Bad”, it seems SCHOENE forecasts the Bucks to finish with the 14th best record in the NBA. That would be what the Bucks finished with last season. Last season, of course, they ended with 46 wins, but in the two seasons prior the 14th best record was 43 wins, so we can guess that SCHOENE forecasts the Bucks to finish this season with somewhere between 43 and 46 wins. I had them at 47 wins.
As for the other forecasts I made this summer and how they compare to SCHOENE, it looks like SCHOENE and I are in basic agreement about the Chicago Bulls. SCHOENE has them around 54 to 56 wins (I said 52, I think). Although I guess I might back them up a couple games because of Boozer’s injury. It looks like we are also in agreement on the prospects of New Jersey and Cleveland, which both of us think will finish around .500%. Ditto for the Timberwolves which we both have around 26 wins.
I think SCHOENE sees the Knicks finishing much better than I predicted, and Detroit finishing substantially worse (I had the Knicks at 39 wins, they have them above the Bucks. I had the Pistons at 31 wins, there’s looks closer to 21).
I didn’t really do any other teams, I ran out of time and initiative. I may still throw something together, but I wanted to do better than that, but just dropped the ball.
Anyway, some interesting forecasts by SCHOENE include: Golden State doing quite well, Charlotte and Atlanta both falling back. And kudos to SCHOENE for backing up the Lakers to around sixth best. I’m not saying that’s correct, but it drives me insane the way ESPN “analysts” always pick last season’s champion. Of the four featured on their roundtable preview, 3 “predicted” the Lakers would win another championship, and all of them predicted the Lakers would win the Western Conference.