The other day I posted an estimate of BasketballProspectus’ Milwaukee Bucks forecast based on a chart with no numbers. I said it looked to be between 43 and 46 wins. Today the site revealed the actual number: 43.0 wins.
I caught some hell this summer for my prediction that the Bucks would win about the same number of games this season that they won last season. People said I was undershooting. Now it looks as though I’m on the high end.
BasketballProspectus also released the win prediction numbers for their other system, NBAPET. That system predicts an even worse fate for the Bucks: 39 wins. That result would not go over well in BucksNation. For what its worth, though, I think NBAPET is a hunk of junk, based on unsubstantiated theories about usage and the like. So I wouldn’t pay much heed to that prediction.
But I have a lot of respect for the SCHOENE system. Its based upon a fairly solid foundation.
The two most interesting forecasts made by SCHOENE involve the Lakers and the Boston Celtics. SCHOENE predicts each team will decline substantially.
Also, both SCHOENE and NBAPET predict the Minnesota Wolves will win 29 games, so my 26 win forecast is no longer as novel as I thought it would be.