82games confirms my Jennings and Salmons analysis

This morning I was a little defensive about my win calculations for Brandon Jennings and John Salmons.  Most metrics have Salmons in the shitter and Jennings near the top in team win production, whereas I have Salmons doing alright and Jennings underperforming, each because of defense.  I now feel justified.

82games just posted their first statistics for the 2010-11 season.  Their defensive statistics jibe almost precisely with my “transcript” statistics.  And their counterpart opponent statistics confirm the analysis I have been giving to Antlerheads since Game One:  Brandon Jennings is playing no defense. 

Take a look at his counterpart point guard statistics.  Look particularly at the opponents’ effective shooting percentage.  Its off the charts.  And he is allowing opponent assists at an incredibly high rate, suggesting lack of ball harrassment. 

If you factor in the 2.1 steals per 48 from my statistics, Jennings counterparts are posting a Win Score per 48 of +12.75.  The NBA average for point guards is +6.80, meaning Jennings is allowing his counterparts to produce double the average.

On the other hand, using 82games numbers, Salmons is just below average.  While that is not what Antlerheads expected, its not quite as bad as others have suggested.  Salmons is living on defense.  Once his offense gets kicking he will be fine.

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2 Responses to “82games confirms my Jennings and Salmons analysis”

  1. Max Says:

    So, I’m concerned about trying to draw inference from MWS given such a small sample size. As over a third of Jennings’s games have come against Chris Paul or Rajon Rondo who are really quite good, whereas Salmons has had to defend no one of their caliber (the bad D on Augustine is more troubling obviously). I wonder if it might be more fruitful to do a measurement of defense taking into account opponents average production (this should only matter for drawing conclusions from smaller sample sizes such as right now or during the playoffs).

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