How are last season’s 20 MVPs doing this season?

Based on Evan’s tip, I’m debuting the first proper table on Courtside Analyst.  No more dot matrix.

The table below compares the win contributions being made this season by the 20 players who posted the highest win contributions last season.  Remember win contribution is a numerical expression of the impact a player is having on making his team a +.500% team, based on the player’s marginal productivity and his playing time.

As you can see below, Kevin Durant’s win production has declined significantly after what looked like a breakout 2009-10 season.  In fact, his WC numbers are back to where they were two seasons ago.  Its early, but could last season have been an aberration?  The other early decliners are: Gerald Wallace (who seems to be quite inconsistent) and Dirk Nowitzki. (You will notice also that LeBron’s numbers and Bosh’s numbers have declined by a nearly identical absolute amount.  I also find it interesting that Wade — the holdover — is the only one of the three who has seen an advancement).

The player making the largest advancement is Pau Gasol of the Lakers.  However, as I recall, he put up similar numbers early last season and then settled back.  Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics has also stepped things way, way up.  And Dwight Howard is having a Bill Russell/Wilt Chamberlain season so far.  Its amazing how counterpart centers do almost nothing when playing Howard except commit an exorbitant amount of fouls.

One last note.  If the player has a parenthetical number in his position category that means he is playing a different positional distribution.  You will see that most of the players are playing the same positional mix they played last season, even players like LeBron who have changed teams.

Position 2009-10
Win Contribution
2010-11
Win Contribution
Win Contribution
Difference

1. Dwight Howard, Orl
5.0 +0.830 +1.081
+0.251
2. Kevin Durant, OKC
3.1 +0.712 +0.141
-0.571
3. LeBron James, Mia
3.1 +0.680 +0.455
-0.225
4. Marcus Camby, Port 4.4 (5.0)
+0.585 +0.633
+0.048
5. Gerald Wallace, Char
3.3 +0.540 +0.175
-0.365
6. Jason Kidd, Dall
1.3 +0.510 +0.583
+0.073
7. Tim Duncan, SA
5.0 (4.4)
+0.480 +0.379
-0.101
8. Dwyane Wade, Mia
1.9 (1.6)
+0.451 +0.602
+0.151
9. Deron Williams, Utah
1.0 +0.413 +0.194
-0.219
10. Rajon Rondo, Bos
1.0 (1.2)
+0.405 +0.802
+0.397
11. Pau Gasol, LAL
4.6 (4.9)
+0.377 +0.933
+0.556
12. Carlos Boozer, Chi
4.5 +0.360 ———
———
13. Lamar Odom, LAL
4.0 +0.359 +0.427
+0.068
14. Steve Nash, Pho
1.0 +0.354 +0.567
+0.213
15. Manu Ginobli, SA
2.3 +0.345 +0.291
-0.054
16. Zach Randolph, Mem
4.1 +0.337 +0.200
-0.137
17. Dirk Nowitzki, Dall
4.1 +0.326 +0.022
-0.304
18. Kevin Garnett, Bos
4.0 +0.312 +0.284
-0.028
19. Samuel Dalembert, Sac
5.0 +0.304 +0.187
-0.117
20. Chris Bosh, Mia
4.9 +0.303 +0.070
-0.233
Glossary
Win Contribution Index:  MWS48 * (minutes played/ total team minutes)
MWS48:  (Player’s WS48 – Counterpart Opps WS48) / 2
WS48:  (Pts + Rebs + Stls + .5Ass + .5Blks – FGAs – TOs – .5FTAs – .5PFs) / minutes played * 48
Counterpart Opps:  The collective average of the players on the opponent teams who played the same postion at the same time as the given player
*All statistical information needed for calculations taken from 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com
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3 Responses to “How are last season’s 20 MVPs doing this season?”

  1. Bucks-Lakers: Bogut has a challenge « Courtside Analyst Says:

    […] Courtside Analyst "Just when you think basketball can't get stupider, it gets more stupid" « How are last season’s 20 MVPs doing this season? […]

  2. EvanZ Says:

    Nice table!

    • tywill33 Says:

      Thanks for the tip, bro!! I was waiting for someone to step up with some remedial formatting advice… you were the only one!!

      People assume I know what I’m doing… poor assumption!

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