Win Chart for the perpetually bad Twolves

It looks like the Timberwolves are going to burn me again.  How can they replace a set of bad players with even worse players?  I’ll tell you how.  Or rather why.  Its Rambis.  He places no value on defense and as a result the Wolves play no defense.

Before last season’s Twolves, no other team I had ever charted had as many “negative win” producers.  The Wolves got rid of those players, but they still have four or five negative win producers!  It has to be the system.

All summer I argued that the Twolves would improve simply by subtraction.  Some commenter said it would not be so easy.  He was right, I was wrong.

As for the specifics, obviously Kevin Love is playing well, although he had a brutal game against the Lakers.  Also, Luke Ridnour is doing well, and newcomer Anthony Tolliver is playing very well.  And the guy who I believe won my “Most Harmful Player” award last season, Corey Brewer, has improved substantially.  That’s it for the good news.

Nearly everyone else is playing poorly.  You might be surprised that Michael Beasley is among them.  So was I.  Nearly every other measure save for mine has him playing at least decent basketball.  Here’s the difference.  My metric individualizes defense, and Beasley, when he mans the small forward spot, plays none.  I mean zero.  Thus his okay scoring stats are overwhelmed by his counterpart opponent stats.

But is he really as bad as I have him?  I was skeptical.  So I put a hold on this Win Chart and manually tracked the last two Twolf games.  Sure shit, he is awful.  While he put up facially good numbers against the Lakers (25 points, 10 boards), he used way too many possessions — and get this — the Laker he was assigned to cover for a lot of the night, Matt Barnes, had one of the most ridiculously productive nights I have ever calculated.  Barnes scored 24 points while using only 11.5 scoring attempts.  That’s nearly impossible to do.  Barnes shot 7-for-7 from the field with 5 three pointers.  No defense.  Plus he grabbed 7 boards and nearly had a perfect night.   Thus, what looked at a glance like a great night for Beasley was actually a counterproductive night.

I think I am correct in my approach.  My approach holds players accountable for their defense.  Yes, defense is something of a team activity, and not all production by a counterpart can be prevented by the player guarding him.  But I remain steadfast in my belief that the immediate defender is the player who has the most “say” over how much or how little a player produces.  And that “say” impacts the bottom line.

Anyway, with that aside, there are other Twolves who are really struggling.  Milicic is playing awful, save for a nice performance against the Lakers.  Telfair is bad, Wayne Ellington is bad, Koufus is bad, this Pekovic guy is awful… lets just get to the chart:

2010-11
Minnesota Wolves
(4-11)
Position
Marginal
Win Score
Win__Loss
Credits
Win Contribution
Rating
Player Winning
Percentage 
K Love 4.2 +3.94 2.3__(-0.3) +0.502 1.172%
A Tolliver 3.6 +2.88
1.2__0.0 +0.235
.991%
L Ridnour 1.0 +0.42 0.5__0.5 +0.012 .533%
C Brewer 2.2 -0.80 0.5__0.8 -0.076 .366%
S Telfair 1.0 -2.22 0.2__1.4 -0.244 .125%
W Johnson 2.5 -2.39
0.2__1.6 -0.283
.096%
L Hayward 3.0 -3.76 0.0__0.4 -0.087 -.135%
S Gaines 1.0 -7.93 0.0__0.2 -0.090 -.843%
M Beasley 3.4 -3.39 (-0.1)__2.0 -0.432 -.072%
N Peckovic 4.8 -5.98 (-0.3)__0.8 -0.222 -.513%
K Koufus 5.0 -7.37 (-0.3)__0.7 -0.196 -.712%
D Milicic 5.0 -5.09 (-0.5)__2.0 -0.560 -.303%
W Ellington 1.9 -7.31 (-0.5)__1.2 -0.363 -.691%


MWS Record: 3.2__11.8



Pythagorean
Record:
3.4__11.6
 
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