The great thing about keeping game-by-game win charts for the Bucks is you can directly track specific trends. I went back and looked at the last six disastrous games for the team to see who ought to bear most of the blame for the decidedly downward shift.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS SIX GAME WIN CHART (GAMES 13-18)
|A Bogut||5.0||up 0.25||0.2__(-0.1)||down 0.083||up .043|
|B Jennings||1.1||down 0.26||0.3__0.6||down 0.038||down .045|
|D Gooden||4.4||down 0.08||0.2__0.2||down 0.011||down .014|
|C Delfino||2.4||—-||—-||down 0.037||—-|
|E Ilyasova||4.2||up 0.15||0.4__0.4||up 0.011||up .023|
|LRM Moute||3.7||down 0.73||0.1__0.6||down 0.078||down .125|
|J Salmons||2.3||down 0.41||0.2__0.7||down 0.066||down .074|
|C Maggette||3.2||down 0.34||0.2__0.2||down 0.039||down .058|
|L Sanders||4.7||up 4.37||0.3__0.2||up 0.069||up .740|
|E Boykins||1.0||down 1.03||0.0__0.1||down 0.032||down .176|
|J Brockman||4.9||down 0.50||0.0__0.3||down 0.010||down .080|
|K Dooling||1.8||down 1.63||(-0.2)__0.7||down 0.122||down .273|
The next time I do a short term Win Chart like this, I will keep specific MWS and Win Contribution numbers for the time period. I didn’t keep game-by-game playing time stats this time, and I don’t have the time to look them up. For now, I simply point out which way every particular player is trending. As you can see, only three Bucks players are currently trending upward, and one of them is currently hurt (Andrew Bogut) and the other really didn’t play at all before this stretch (Sanders).
As you can also see, the players who are really struggling are John Salmons, Luc Moute, and especially, Keyon Dooling. Dooling has been awful.
What fascinates me is how consistent these marginal statistics are. It convinces me more and more that I’ve either landed on the truth with Marginal Win Score, or I am hot on its trail.
But what does it matter anyway? If a bear shits in the woods and no one smells it, did it really shit?
Maybe I should just go back to speculating about whether “Salmons is feeling too much pressure” or “Jennings is trying to do too much” or bullshit like of that ilk, because fans seem to love it. That’s popular. Trying to analyze what’s really happening… eh, not so much. But I think the future is on my side, not theirs.