NBA Eastern Conference MWS Win Production Breakdown

Below I have crafted a chart showing each Eastern Conference team’s win production sources according to their Team Marginal Win Score.  Team Marginal Win Score is a comparison of each team’s Win Score production against their Opponents production, with my chart being broken down into the three main categories that influence winning in the NBA.

The three categories are (1) “Scoring Efficiency” per game which is (Pts-FGAs-.5FTAs); (2) “Possessions Created” per game which is (Rebs + Stls – TOs); and (3) “Net Helpful Acts” per game which is (.5Ass + .5Bks – .5PFs). Once you calculate those numbers, you subtract the Team’s production from the Opponents’ production and you get the MWS component number for that category.

Once you get the 3 MWS component numbers for each category and for both Team and Opposition, you add them up. That is your baseline Marginal Win Score. You then divide by 10 (for five players on the court at any one time, and one half offense, one half defense).  That number is your “Team Win Contribution”, and is the number I have listed in the fifth column for each team. From that number, you can calculate each team’s expected winning percentage, which is almost always very close to each team’s pythagorean win total (in other words, the number of wins you would expect a team with such statistics to produce).  The final number is the projected record over 82 games. 

As Bucks fans will see, it appears the Bucks “Scoring Defense” is overrated. It is their “Possession Creation Defense” (basically, holding on to the ball and keeping the other team from getting extra possessions or “reloads”) that is at least keeping them from falling off the face of the Earth.

You will also notice that the Knickerbockers could be a much better team if they would play a little defense and create some possessions. They’re Team Efficient Scoring is elite level, but their Oppo numbers are dog food.

Final point. The Chicago Bulls are winning through the power of Marginal Win Score. I should call them “Team Marginal Win Score”. The Bulls are bad at scoring the ball, but they make up for it by limiting their opponents ability to score the ball. And more importantly, they create wins by safeguarding possessions and winning the battle of the boards.

I will do a spread sheet featuring the NBA Western Conference win component break down, provided this one looks decent (its always dicey when it comes to me and any kind of posted spreadsheet.  So far, it looks great on Internet Explorer, but I’ll bet it looks like crammed together shit on Firefox.  I’ll check that later).

EndNote:  Remember, the column headings are (1) Scoring Efficiency; (2) Possession Creation; (3) Net Helpful Acts; (4) Team Win Contribution (Team MWS/10); (5) Expected Winning Percentage; (6) Projected Wins. 

If you want to see where your team is getting its wins, just compare the numbers to the NBA averages:  For Scoring Efficiency (5.70); For Possession Creation (33.80); For Net Helpful Acts (2.40).  If your team is producing more than average in any category, then its offensive production in that category is leading to+.500% wins.  If your team is holding its Opponents below any of those averages, then its defense in the relevant category is leading to +.500% wins.  If its not above average in any offensive or defensive category (Hello, Cleveland and Washington) then you’re hurting for wins.

NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE TEAM MWS BREAKDOWN

Boston Celtics  11.36 33.01 4.05      
Opp   2.21 29.01 0.8      
MWS   9.14 4.01 3.25 1.604 0.77%  (63-19)
               
New York Knicks 11.37 33.28 3.42      
Opp   7.75 36.21 1.86      
MWS   3.62 -2.93 1.56 0.225 0.54%  (44-37)
               
Phil 76ers   3.25 36.1 2.53      
Opp   4.19 36.1 2.7      
MWS   -0.94 0 -0.17 -0.111 0.48%  (39-43)
               
Toronto Raptors 5.95 31.96 1.32      
Opp   11.31 32.42 3.19      
MWS   -5.35 -0.46 -1.87 -0.768 0.37%  (30-52)
               
New Jersey Nets 1.89 31.84 0.03      
Opp   5.17 36.06 3.26      
MWS   -3.28 -4.22 -3.23 -1.073 0.32%  (26-56)
               
Chicago Bulls 4.91 37.06 3.85      
Opp   0.85 32.16 2.73      
MWS   4.06 4.89 1.12 1.007 0.67%  (55-27)
               
Indiana Pacers 3.73 34.33 2.4      
Opp   1.91 38.3 2.58      
MWS   1.82 -3.97 -0.18 -0.233 0.46%  (38-44)
               
Milwaukee Bucks -2.43 34.86 0.81      
Opp   4.68 32.31 1.23      
MWS   -7.11 2.56 -0.42 -0.497 0.42%  (34-48)
               
Detroit Pistons 3.73 31.51 2.41      
Opp   9.28 35.09 3.73      
MWS   -5.55 -3.59 -1.33 -1.047 0.32%  (27-54)
               
Cleveland Cavaliers 0.36 32.59 2.53      
Opp   10.37 36.58 4.03      
MWS   -10.01 -3.99 -1.51 -1.551 0.24%  (19-63)
               
Miami Heat 10.47 36.17 2.15      
Opp   -0.81 32.94 0.16      
MWS   11.27 3.23 1.99 1.649 0.78%  (64-19)
               
Orlando Magic 8.38 33.11 1.53      
Opp   2.42 31.75 0.76      
MWS   5.96 1.36 0.77 0.809 0.64%  (52-30)
               
Atlanta Hawks 7.19 32.71 4.29      
Opp   2.98 34.51 2.39      
MWS   4.21 -1.81 1.91 0.431 0.58%  (47-35)
               
Charlotte Bobcats 4.41 30.56 3.28      
Opp   6.48 32.06 3.35      
MWS   -2.07 -1.51 -0.07 -0.365 0.44%  (36-46)
               
Washington Wizards 1.35 32.73 1.25      
Opp   8.38 34.63 3.06      
MWS   -7.03 -1.91 -1.81 -1.075 0.32%  (26-56)
               
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2 Responses to “NBA Eastern Conference MWS Win Production Breakdown”

  1. brgulker Says:

    This is really cool analysis, Ty. Thanks for doing it and sharing.

  2. ilikeflowers Says:

    Miami is so good that in spite of 19 losses they’re still gonna win 64 games. Now that’s impressive!

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