Remember how many “can’t miss” prospects there were in the draft three summers ago? Ah, most of them did not pan out at all.
I did a career synopsis of the 2008 NBA Draft so far, using Marginal Win Score.
I am posting the chart tonight, and I will buff up the post later on. For now, it uses career numbers from each draft choice. It features the same statistics used in two posts ago for the NBA MVP Race, save for one change. In the final column I added an arbitrary “value” statistic that is meaningless, but sort of shows how “useful” each draft choice has been so far. The statistic is simply (wW>0.5%= Wins plus Wins Above 0.500%). I conjured this statistic because I didn’t want to make it look as though Joe Alexander’s (-0.9) wins above 0.500% was as close to Derrick Rose’s (+0.3) wins above 0.500%.
Tomorrow I am going to add second rounders to this post, and I will also link back to some of my pre-draft “previews” from the old Bucks Diary so we can see what I got right and what I got very, very wrong.
One last point. If you look at the Excel generated averages at the bottom of the columns, its interesting to note that the average winning percentage for the entire first round is equal to 0.349%, which is 70% of average, which is the universally accepted “replacement level” in sports (though there are serious problems with the entire notion of a “replacement level”).